First off, my humblest apologies for a pretty poor return to the tipping game. In my defence the start of seasons can often be tough as teams settle in and there's a lack of form to go off. Last season was something of an anomaly in the way we got flying off the marks, although I'd still hope to do better than last weekend. I've had another chance to see some UEFA club football this week so hopefully the more teams play the better the profits will be.
Musical recommendation is from The Menzingers with Richard Coury, another favourite band of mine.
Week 1 Results
Aston Villa v Newcastle - Lose 2 points.
Southampton v West Ham - Win 2.24 points.
Inter Milan v Juventus - Win 1.6 points.
Napoli v Atalanta - Win 1.2 points.
Malaga v Rayo Vallecano - Lose 2 points.
Mainz 05 v Schalke 04 - Lose 2 points.
Bayern Munich v Hannover 96 - Lose 2 points.
Trabzonspor v Karabukspor - Lose 2 points.
Sivasspor v Eskisehirspor - Lose 2 points.
Totals - Lose 6.96 points.
Week 2
Liverpool v Southampton, Saturday 1500
It's no secret that in the past two seasons I have regularly layed Liverpool with the belief that bookmakers often price them too short. If you look back through my results, and the profit I have made from laying them, then I would certainly say my opinion is based in truth. However, I did think that they were moving back towards a fair price as Brendan Rodgers seemed to be getting a semblance of order into the side that went against their low league position. They have started this season well in terms of results, but I think this has slightly skewed the odds again as bookmakers seem keen to get them short. I would suggest they are being kept afloat by Daniel Sturridge, who is carrying an injury and needs a rest, and Philip Coutinho, who is now injured for a few weeks. They are still going to be hard to beat, but I don't have them as short as 1.44 in any universe for this.
Southampton were one of the few results to go our way last week with their draw against West Ham. In truth they made us sweat a bit as they were regularly attacking, but missed a final ball and also look a side still working each other out. Pablo Osvaldo is a very good forward, in my opinion, but they need to integrate him better. That being said they looked a solid side for the most part and actually a bit better than I gave them credit for. I still think they may be over-estimated against the poorer sides at home, but conversely I think they might be underestimated against the better sides. This is a case in point so I'm happy to take a chance on this theory.
With Liverpool too I would generally wait until a couple of hours before kick-off as they always seem to shorten up a bit to lay.
Lay Liverpool on Saturday at 1.55 on Betfair. 2 points.
Cardiff v Tottenham, Sunday 1600
Cardiff were comfortable Championship winners last season under manager Malky Mackay, who also did a great job at Watford previously. I had thought the arrival of rich, Far-Eastern owners might see him pushed aside, but they stuck with him and he repaid that faith. I think he's certainly a manager with a chance to make an impression and some of his signings have suggested a good knowledge of world football sometimes lacking in his more experienced peers. I personally think Gary Medel is a great addition. He will definitely get a few cards, but has huge experience and that bite to his game should set a good tone for the rest of the side. They have already shocked Manchester City by winning 3-2 in Wales and I think they can make it a bit of a fortress for themselves in their bid to stay up.
Tottenham have, for me, made some truly exceptional signings this summer and Andres Villas Boas has again shown himself to be a very astute manager. I'm a confirmed fan anyway, he just seems to appreciate a team and how to put one together. Cristian Eriksen looked an excellent signing already on his debut last weekend and something of a bargain in today's market too. I also think the likes of Paulinho and Etienne Capoue stand a very good chance of being successful. Villas Boas often rests players for the Europa League, and I would expect that to be the case, but some will certainly play tonight and on Sunday. This combined with the fact I think they are still getting used to each other and I don't see them justifying their short odds this weekend.
Lay Tottenham at 1.87 on Betfair. 2 points.
Osasuna v Elche, Friday 2000
Osasuna had been a good bet for us when at home to better sides in La Liga for the past two seasons, but had definitely become less so last time. This has continued into this season with them having lost all four matches so far and sitting bottom of the table. They simply look like their legendary fight has gone out of them and without that they're barely half the side in truth. Imagine Stoke without any battle and that's the current Osasuna outfit. This is a match they would expect to win if they want to have any chance of climbing the table, but there's little to justify such short odds.
Elche were one of the three promoted sides and, as is normal in La Liga, they've spent almost nothing on that side. This isn't actually necessary a huge problem in Spain as apart from Barcelona and the big two from Madrid no side spends any money. You are often relying on keeping a side together and hoping a player you take a chance on is a success or an existing player suddenly comes good. Elche have started the season with no wins, but three draws and a loss.The loss came in their opening match to a Rayo Vallecano side capable of doing that on their day and has seen creditable draws at home to Real Sociedad and Real Valladolid and away to Almeria. They seem slightly undervalued to me.
Lay Osasuna at 2.02 on Betfair. 2 points.
Sassuolo v Inter Milan, Sunday 1130
Sassuolo are another promoted side in Europe, this time in Italy's Serie A. They were actually Serie B champions last season, but look the least likely to stay up of the promoted sides. They are currently bottom having lost all three matches so far. That they have also only scored one goal and conceded eight really serves to highlight how hard it is going to be for them. They might yet find their feet, but they could already be too far adrift by that point. They look a side that is heading straight back down to me.
The appointment of Walter Mazzari at Inter Milan is already looking incredibly shrewd. They got a very creditable draw with Juventus last weekend to again give us some money back. They also conceded the first goal of the season to show the immediate impact Mazzari has had upon the defence, an area of concern in recent seasons. That they purchased Hugo Campagnaro was an excellent move. He has been in Mazzari sides for over five years and should be able to help the rest of the defence adjust straight away. They have no European football to tire them out and should be fresh and ready for this. They look short odds, but it's all about the rest and lack of quality of the opposition.
Back Inter Milan at 1.87 with PinnacleBet. 2 points.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Eintracht Braunschweig, Friday 1930
Borussia Monchengladbach were a column favourite two seasons ago when Marco Reus inspired them to climb to fourth in the table. They had an incredible home record, let in very few goals and Reus was inspirational and fully earned his big move to Borussia Dortmund. Last season saw them struggling for a new way of playing without Reus's flair and goals and they were punished for committing more players forward with some heavy defeats. By the end of the season though they seemed to have found a much better balance, particularly at home. The summer signing of Max Kruse from Freiburg was also very astute and has seen him named as the Bundesliga signing of the summer by many in the know. They have managed to score in all five matches and have won both home matches so far with an aggregate score of 7-1. Kruse and Juan Arango have both looked excellent in those wins.
Eintracht Braunschweig were promoted from the Bundesliga II and are already struggling with the increased quality. They sit bottom with one draw and four losses and two goals scored and ten conceded. The other issue is that apart from Borussia Dortmund they've not even played a good side yet. Nurnberg, Hamburg, Frankfurt and Werder Bremen aren't exactly the leading lights of the league. There's an argument Monchengladbach might not represent value, but I think they're the right price and I'm happy to back them on that basis.
Back Borussia Monchengladbach at 1.4 with Coral.
Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen, Saturday 1430
Last weekend Mainz 05 let us down in narrowly being beaten at home by Schalke 04. There's no particular shame in that as Schalke certainly have a decent side, they just look unlikely to repeat their performances of the last two seasons any time soon. Mainz only lost 0-1 so they weren't exactly blown away either. They also don't have Europa League football this season to tire them out or add to the injury list and this should aid their bid to finish in a good position. That they have already had four different scorers also bodes well as they can struggle for goals at times with no 'stand-out' striker. Nicolai Muller's three goals already will see hope that he can continue in that vein and has seen him win his first international cap against Ecuador recently.
Bayer Leverkusen put in a disappointing performance against Manchester United this Tuesday in their return to the Champions League. They were soundly beaten 4-2 at Old Trafford and looked all at sea defensively at times. They will have had hopes of progressing on from last seasons third place finish as the management duo of Sacsha Lewandowski and Sami Hyypia looked like it didn't work from the outside. With Lewandowski moving aside it was hoped Hyypia could progress the side on his own. It's far too early for judgement on that, but they look very short odds on this weeks performance. I'll side against them this week and give Mainz another chance.
Lay Leverkusen at 2.15 on Betfair. 2 points.
Konyaspor v Genclerbirligi, Saturday 1600
Last weekend wasn't my finest in Turkey's Super Lig with both bets lost. I must admit I am definitely playing catch up on the signings over the summer as they are not the easiest to come across when you're on the other side of the world! However, purely on current form and previous knowledge of Turkish football this looks a good bet. It is very tough to win away at a decent side in Turkey, especially for those sides outside the big three from Istanbul who don't carry any fear factor either. Konyaspor have actually returned to the Super Lig from Lig 2 over the summer via the play-offs, and look to be struggling slightly already. They have won one and lost one at home and also lost both away matches so far. They've scored four and conceded four at home too. The one win came in a comeback from 0-2 at home to Fenerbahce on the opening weekend and they've struggled to build on that with the three losses.
Genclerbirligi really pushed the big sides three seasons ago, but have struggled ever since. They have even been perilously close to relegation and seem to now be stuck as a bottom half side. They have been particularly poor away from home and have continued that theme this season in losing both away matches so far and not scoring a goal in either. They've got a win and a draw at home to show they're not a bad side, but they just can't seem to travel well. I'll again back the draw here as I did last week in a different match. Turkey seems to have more draws than most leagues owing to the low amounts of goals scored outside the Istanbul three.
Back the Draw at 3.38 with PinnacleBet. 2 points.
Besiktas v Galatasaray, Sunday 1700
The big match this weekend, and of the season so far, in Turkey is one of the six Istanbul derbies a season with Galatasaray crossing town to play Besiktas. Last season saw Besiktas finally abandon their policy of signing foreign players nearing the end of their careers from Spain and Portugal and hoping for a swansong on big wages. Sadly for them it nearly always ended in the players merely turning up for the pay packet and having little, or no, commitment to the cause. Last season they went with only Portugese Hugo Almeida up front and Manuel Fernandes in midfield, but both of these were not at the end of their careers and had shown that they were good players in the Super Lig. The majority of the rest of the side is drawn from Turkey and players performing at other clubs being given a shot at a bigger side. So far this season they have won all four matches and look the team to beat. They have also scored eleven and conceded four to show they certainly have the attacking potency to maintain a title challenge.
Galatasaray reached the knockout stages of the Champions League last season having steadily built a side that was by far the best in Turkey. They then went mad and added Wesley Sneijder and Didier Drogba to the squad on big wages and I think it has unbalanced the side. They're still one of the top sides in Turkey, but play seems to slow through Sneijder and Drogba seems to struggle for motivation at times. They will definitely battle with Besiktas for the title, but they've not hit their stride yet at all. They've only won one match and drawn three so far, the win coming at home. Four goals in four is pretty poor for them too, especially with the investment in attacking players. All this makes Gala seem very short to win to me.
Back Besiktas at 2.9 with Coral. 2 points.
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