Hello again all, after a short break for the World Cup 2014 Qualifiers and numerous friendlies. I did have a flutter on the matches, but only came out marginally up and hadn't the time to do blogs I'm afraid. However, we are now back to domestic action and looking to again try and claw back some of those early losses. We have been hit by the odd freakish result, such as Espanyol losing at home to a Sevilla side fourteen months after their last away win, but these should even out over time.
Week 7
Southampton v Hull City - Lose 2 points.
Manchester United v Arsenal - Lose 2 points.
Atheltic Bilbao v Levante - Win 3.33 points.
Espanyol v Sevilla - Lose 2 points.
Choevo v AC Milan - Win 1.7 points.
VFL Wolfsburg v Borussia Dortmund - Lose 2 points.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Nurnberg - Win 1.2 points.
Weekly Total- Lose 1.77 points.
Running Total - Lose 17.63 points.
Music from Jason Isbell and The 400 Unit with Alabama Pines.
Stoke City v Sunderland, Saturday 1500
I am still not sold at all on Mark Hughes management of Stoke after some initially promising results. Credit to him for buying actual full-backs and attempting to play slightly more attacking, but he seems to have already reverted back to more Pulis-esque tactics. This is a lot to do with the fact he has not completely overhauled a squad built in Pulis image, with the likes of Jon Walters (a striker who's best attribute is his work-rate) and others where graft was more of a selling point than guile. They've only won once at home so far, with three draws and a loss, and goals are holding them back. I don't see this changing before January and new players being brought in.
Sunderland started horrendously under Paolo Di Canio's management with the initial shock well worn off as a motivational tool. I actually think he brought in some useful players in the summer, but there was so many and he tried to integrate them all at once. The likes of Emanuele Giaccherini and Jozy Altidore are international class players and shouldn't have been struggling like they were. Since the introduction of Gus Poyet as manager he seems to be putting more tactical nous into the side, and no little bite. Having Jack Colback and Lee Cattermole in midfield it's a statement he wants the side to battle. He was also adept at the nastier sides of grinding out a result when at Brighton and I'd expect the same from Sunderland. The lack of goals at Stoke and a backs to the wall approach could well see Sunderland leave with something.
Lay Stoke City at 2.06 on Betfair. 2 points.
Cardiff City v Manchester United, Sunday 1600
Cardiff have started the season pretty well in my opinion. They're only two points above the bottom three at present, but the table is so clogged up that a couple of good results would see them shoot up the league. I think a huge part of this was the addition of Gary Medel over the summer. He may have been expensive at £12million, but he is a class act. He provides excellent passing, huge energy and no little aggression along with the experience and leadership he has learned in his career. That Malky Mackay's job is under pressure is ludicrous to me with the side looking capable most weeks of getting a result and he seems to have invested pretty wisely. They are another side who are having problems scoring goals, with only nine in eleven so far, but I am more siding with the defence in this one.
Manchester United seem to have changed their fortunes slightly since the initial poor start under David Moyes management. Having watched a fair bit of them in action though I am still not sure they've actually improved, just got a few better results. The midfield is still an obvious area of concern, especially with Marouane Fellaini seemingly already dropped, but I would suggest the strikers are the only ones performing. I actually think Cardiff may win the midfield battle in this match and that should give them a key advantage. United's defence is unlikely to be tested too much aside from set-pieces so they are counting on the strikers firing and I think they too are under-performing. Wayne Rooney is working hard, but not scoring, and Robin Van Persie looks less interested than last season with rumours he is not happy with the new manager continuing.
Lay Manchester United at 1.67 on Betfair. 2 points.
AC Milan v Genoa, Saturday 1945
AC Milan are in trouble again, as they were early on last season. The team is still going through a change in direction towards youth and lower costs and the effect is that they are way off a title challenge at present. There are some good players in the side, such as Mario Balotelli, but they are underperforming, Balotelli again, or just plain out of form, Stephen El Shaarawy. The defence is a long standing issue that was again unsolved over the summer and manager Max Allegri is under pressure to get results. They haven't won in four matches and have also failed to score in the last two. There are problems throughout the side and I think the manager will be gone before January.
Genoa appointed Gian Gasperini as manager and he has shocked everyone with how quickly he has improved the side in his return. He has a very individual system using wing-backs and fortunately for him Genoa haven't really coped since he left for Inter Milan and are capable of slotting back into this system. They are actually above AC Milan in the table and I think the handicaps are a little too generous for me to bet on Genoa.
Lay AC Milan -1.0 Asian Handicap on Betfair at 1.85. 2 points.
Sampdoria v Lazio, Sunday 1400
This match sees a couple of sides who don't score many meeting in Genoa. Sampdoria have been struggling to get going this season and currently lie in the relegation spots, third bottom. The problem seems to lie in the complete lack of goal threat they have which has seen them only score seven in twelve matches, and four in six at home so far. They have also lost four from six at home so far, but have only been beaten by more than one goal three times so far. I don't think they're miles away from getting draws from matches, and more if they can recruit a striker.
Lazio are in eighth currently thanks to their amazing home record of winning four, drawing one and losing one so far. Away from home they have drawn three and lost three. In those six away matches they have scored six and conceded twelve so far. The conceding shouldn't be too much of a factor here with Sampdoria's dreadful goals for record, but Lazio will not be scoring loads either the way they are set up. I think Goals Under is the way to go in this one.
Back Under 2.0 Goals Asian Totals at 2.19 with 32Red. 2 points.
VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Monchengladbach, Friday 1930
Stuttgart seem to consistently be finishing just away from the European spots in the Bundesliga and I would have them down for the same again this season. They are a rare case of being better away from home with a home record so far of won just one, drawn three and lost one too. They aren't being beaten, but are struggling for goals compared to their away performances. They're a relatively attacking side so the balance between defence and attack doesn't seem to be right to me yet. They have only won once in the last five games and come up against a Monchengladbach side performing very well.
Borussia Monchengladbach are a side reborn this season so far, particularly at home. They have won all six at home so far with goals for twenty and only four conceded. The partnership of Max Kruse and Raffael has been brilliant so far for them. Away from home they have only won one, drawn one and lost four, but they are unbeaten in six games and two of the losses were to Bayern Munich and Leverkusen. They are in great form and look a good bet for best of the rest to me if they can avoid injuries to key personnel.
Lay VfB Stuttgart at 2.4 on Betfair. 2 points.
Augsburg v Hoffenheim, Saturday 1430
Augsburg now look like a side who may stay around in the Bundesliga after intially struggling following their promotion two years ago. This has been down to a style of play that focusses on defence and puts not losing ahead of winning matches. For Germany a record of scoring thirteen in twelve isn't great, but it has given Augsburg three wins from six at home to keep them afloat. They have conceded twenty three in all their matches though to show that they can be gotten at by attacking sides. They're scoring enough to be above relegation, but are only beating the sides around them.
Hoffenheim look a bit better to me this season than they have since their initial success after promotion. They went through a lot of changes in manager and playing staff following that first season and never truly settled down. This saw them almost relegated last season and a more stable environment sought out by senior level management. Markus Gidsol was brought in as manager and they are again looking to unearth players from abroad and lower divisions. So far they have been better away from home with a record of won two, drawn one and lost two from five with fourteen scored and twelve conceded. I think Augsburg look short against a side who have positives where the home side have negatives.
Lay Augsburg at 2.17 on Betfair. 2 points.
Real Sociedad v Celta de Vigo, Saturday 1700
Real Sociedad have at times this season looked like the extra games in the Champions League have taken a toll on a smallish squad. They currently lie in seventh position having struggled away from home with just one win on the road so far. However comma at home they go won three, drawn two and lost just once so far with twelve scored and just three conceded. They were thrashed by Real Madrid last time out, but were unbeaten in three before that with eight scored for no reply in their last two home matches. The international break should actually have seen a number of their best players getting a rest, like Antoine Griezmann (suspended from French duty) and Carlos Vela (still not back in with Mexico) so they could well fire on every cyclinder.
Celta Vigo look like they may well be in trouble this season to me. It's tight in La Liga again, but not winning at home yet makes me very worried about them. Even if they have won three away so far. They have had real trouble scoring at home and seem happier when the shackles come off away from home. They are up against a very good side in Sociedad though and the price looks fair to me.
Back Real Sociedad at 1.76 with PinnacleSports. 2 points.
Levante v Villarreal, Sunday 1100
I keep following Levante, and I will continue to do so until they prove me wrong. My assessment is they are undervalued by odds compilers, with respect to how hard they are to beat. On paper it is far from a brilliant side, but they get results through sheer effort and force of will at times. The worry here is that they have only won once from six at home with three draws and two defeats. The caveat for me is that they have only conceded five in those six matches and just need to score a few more to turn this around. It may not happen immediately, but they look long for a tough to beat side against newcomers.
Whilst Villarreal are new to La Primera this season following promotion, they have started exceptionally well. They may actually suit the top division better as they retained class in Cani and Bruno Soriano who are again showing themselves to be excellent midfielders. They sit fourth in the table with seven wins from thirteen so far, and three away from home. They are scoring far more at home than away though, with just six for them away so far, and that makes me think they may struggle to win this one.
Lay Villarreal at 2.2 on Betfair. 2 points.
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