Last weekend saw a return to profitable ways for us on the blog and left me with a better feeling about my handle on things. As mentioned last week it has been a summer of change around Europe in terms of where teams are in their own divisions. This is not uncommon, obviously, but the start of the season can sometimes be difficult to immediately spot who has changed, and most importantly for betting, how they've changed. For instance, in the Premier League I see in the top six or so that Arsenal, Liverpool and Southampton have improved, Tottenham and Chelsea have changed (in terms of defence/attack balance) and also that Manchester United have regressed. I think I am now in a position where I have better assessed the leagues I cover regularly, although I'm not completely confident on Turkey yet, and results should improve naturally with this.
Music from The Holy Mess with My Boring 90's.
Week 6
Arsenal v Liverpool - Win 2.66 points.
Everton v Tottenham - VOID
Real Betis v Levnate - Win 1.92 points.
Almeria v Real Valladolid - Lose 2 points.
AC Milan v Fiorentina - Win 1.72 points.
Borussia Dortmund v Stuttgart - Win 0.76 points.
Hertha Berlin v Schalke 04 - Lose 2 points.
OGC Nice v Bordeaux - Lose 2 points.
Bursaspor v Fenerbahce - Win 0.96 points.
Weekly Total - Win 2.02
Running Total - Lose 15.86 points.
Southampton v Hull City, Saturday 1500
Southampton are one of the sides I have had to slightly adjust my pre-season thoughts on. I had them marked as again slightly struggling, but they appear to have set themselves up as a hard-working, high pressure defensive side who will make anyone earn a goal against them. This should easily keep them out of trouble and could yet see them push for a European place for next season, or a cup win, but the attack is yet to fire. Two of their biggest signings of this season and last were Gaston Ramirez and Pablo Osvaldo, but neither is scoring. With Osvaldo in particular, they might have been warned, as he has a record of stroppy behaviour. This seems to have been the case again here as he has not linked up with the rest of the attack at all. I still think Rickie Lambert is a better bet as he works harder and possesses no little skill and threat himself.
Hull City are another side presently confounding many peoples expectations. I am absolutely no huge fan of Steve Bruce, but this is more the case if you want to see your club pushing on up the Premier League. He was fine at keeping Wigan and Sunderland afloat, but struggled to take either side on, despite being gifted an awful lot of cash to do so at Sunderland. Hull have been built similarly to Southampton with defence in mind first of all, but they have almost no goal threat in the side. Tom Huddlestone and Curtis Davies have been stand out players so far, but although Huddlestone can be creative he does not score. Bruce signed Danny Graham hoping he would repeat his success in Swansea's promotion season, but he seems stuck in a hopeless goal drought at present. They should keep Southampton fairly restricted, but I don't see them getting a goal.
Back Under 2.25 Goals at 2.3 with PinnacleBet. 2 points.
Manchester United v Arsenal. Sunday 1600
Both of these sides have undergone some serious changes over the summer, but for completely different reasons. Manchester United finally said goodbye to Alex Ferguson and brought in David Moyes from Everton as his replacement. I would imagine a huge part of this decision was due to the way Moyes consistently pushed Everton up the table on a very limited budget. The owners, the Glazers, must realise they have been left miles behind in terms of spending power and also must have been aware that Ferguson was getting an ungodly level of performance out of an, on paper, fading side. Unfortunately for Moyes, he was only given Marouane Fellaini as an addition to the squad. He should have added energy to a pretty listless midfield, but he has yet to find a way of doing so. The only players in the squad I see improving are David De Gea and Rafael, with the obvious class of Robin Van Persie and Wayne Rooney, but the rest of the squad seems ageing, unmotivated or just not good enough. They have looked better of late, but nowhere near a side who could sustain a title challenge for me.
Arsenal are now five points clear at the summit of the Premier League and people are now beginning to wonder if they can sustain this for an entire season. I personally feel that if you can get 5.0 on them winning the Premier League it's an excellent long term bet. They might not be this consistent the whole season long, but I couldn't say that of any other side either. The defence had been mentioned by me last season as being very unfairly derided, but is now getting some of the credit it deserves. Arsene Wenger seems to have settled on a back four of Bacary Sagna, Per Mertesacker, Laurent Koscielny and Kieran Gibbs who are benefitting from playing together every week. The midfield and forwards look in fantastic form, even those on the bench like Tomas Rosicky when they are brought in to the side, and are scoring plenty. They haven't lost away this season so I think their price is currently huge.
Lay Manchester United at 2.32 on Betfair. 2 points.
Athletic Bilbao v Levante, Saturday 1900
Athletic Bilbao finally completed their move to a new stadium from their wonderful old ground and have benefitted from this so far. They are so far unbeaten at home with four wins and two draws from their opening six home matches. They have scored twelve and conceded just six in those matches, but they have won just one in the last six matches and look to have tailed off from their flying start to the season. They've not struggled to score, but they have still not tightened up at the back enough for me to have any confidence in them at such short odds.
Levante are a side I have been with for the last two seasons and I am still not sure that the compilers have correctly assessed them this season either. We profited from betting against Real Betis last week when against Levante and they followed this up by narrowly being beaten in stoppage time at home to Granada. That was only the third loss of the season and the first by a side who are not Barcelona or Real Madrid. They have also only conceded five goals aside from the matches with Barcelona and Real in their other ten matches. They may not win this, but are well worth being with in some format.
Lay Athletic Bilbao at 1.6 on Betfair. 2 points.
Espanyol v Sevilla, Sunday 1100
I don't always put two bets up from La Liga, but this week I think they're both too good to miss. Espanyol look like they may be one of the sides who push for European football next season given a quarter of the season has already gone and they look a solid side. They don't score many, but they press opposition sides very hard and make getting a result from them very difficult indeed. At home they have so far won three, drawn two and lost just once. They have beaten Atletico Madrid a few weeks ago and only lost 1-0 away at city rivals Barcelona last week. They look a good chance at the odds.
Sevilla are another side in Spain, like Valencia, who are now a few years past the position their odds suggest. Sevilla were a phenomenally good side under Juande Ramos with the likes of Dani Alves and Freddie Kanoute playing for them. They were capable of beating anyone and were part of a top four with Barcelona, Real Madrid and Valencia. Sadly, this is no longer the case. They no longer possess anyone a good club would particularly covet, especially with Geoffrey Kondogbia joining Monaco over the summer, and teams fancy gaining points against them. They have not won away yet this season and I see that run continuing.
Back Espanyol at 2.42 with SBOBet. 2 points.
Chievo v AC Milan, Sunday 1400
Chievo have only won one match so far this season, but they are not being soundly beaten. In previous years they have relied upon a very good home record to keep them away from trouble and I think they could yet get better. Their problem has been scoring goals, considering how poor their results have been the fact they have conceded eighteen in eleven is not awful. They have drawn 0-0 last weekend and were only beaten 1-0 by Roma and 1-2 by Fiorentina previous to that. If they could improve upon their dreadful goals for record of just five so far then they'd have more of a chance.
AC Milan are seemingly discussing things at boardroom level as how they can improve their start to the season. This was also the case last season and they backed Max Allegri to improve the side and added Mario Balotelli who fired them up the table. Unfortunately this season the forwards, including Balotelli, haven't fired at all, with Balotelli and Stephen El Sharaawy currently out of the side. They have also conceded goals at an alarming rate and were beaten at home last weekend by Fiorentina. This is a winnable match for them, but I can't see them getting many.
Back Under 2.5 Goals at 1.85 with MarathonBet. 2 points.
VFL Wolfsburg v Borussia Dortmund, Saturday 1430
Wolfsburg have started the season with a particularly good home record of having won four matches and lost just once in five. Strangely that solitary loss was to bottom side Eintracht Braunschweig in a 0-2 reverse. They have won three on the bounce since that defeat with seven scored and two conceded. My problem with this record so far is that they have not beaten a good side yet and Borussia Dortmund are currently proving to be one of Europe's best sides in every match. They have conceded ten in their away matches, where they have played far more decent sides, and this is a worry. I think they're due a big defeat and this could be the match they get it.
Borussia Dortmund lost 1-0 at home to Arsenal last night in the Champions League. They matched one of Europe's other form sides in every area though and could consider themselves unlucky to lose the match. In the Bundesliga they are almost imperious having lost just once all season. This was away at a very good Borussia Monchengladbach side where they were by far the better side throughout and simply had an off day in front of goal. They were the same odds for that match and Gladbach are a better side than Wolfsburg, that's enough for me.
Back Borussia Dortmund at 1.8 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Borussia Monchengladbach v FC Nurnberg, Saturday 1730
I avoided Borussia Monchengladbach last season whilst they adjusted to the loss of their best defender and forward to Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund respectively. Dante has gone on to establish himself as a vital part of Munich's team, as has Marco Reus at Dortmund. They were conceding too many and not scoring enough, but this season they seem to be a lot better under manager Lucien Favre. The Swiss is famed for his ability to organise a defence and with the addition of striker Max Kruse they look a lot more potent in attack. They have won all five home matches so far with seventeen scored and just three conceded so far, with Kruse scoring four and strike partner Raffael getting six. Having watched them dismantle a good Frankfurt side two weeks ago, I foresee an easy win in this one.
Nurnberg are currently struggling no end and have yet to win a match this season. They have been slightly better away from home, having drawn five and lost one in six, but they have conceded ten in those games. They have scored eight, but are coming up against a very good defence and exceptional attack who make those statistics look very ominous indeed to me. I would have Monchengladbach as a 1.5 shot so the available 1.6 is fine by me.
Back Borussia Monchengladbach at 1.6 with BetBright. 2 points.
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