Once again I offer my apologies for the absence of a blog for a couple of weeks. I have been involved in a job hunt that has finally reaped reward and hopefully now will be able to get back to consistently completing the blog every week at least once.
I realise it has not been the start to the season on here that we wanted either. The break has also given me a bit of time to go back over the tips I have been giving out and I am still confident in the majority of them. However comma I am also free of ego enough to admit there have been a few that I would not have given if things were going better, clutching at straws a bit perhaps. From here on out I will endeavour to get back to basics.
Week 8
Stoke v Sunderland - Win 1.88 points.
Cardiff v Manchester United - Win 3 points.
AC Milan v Genoa - Win 2.35 points.
Sampdoria v Lazio - VOID.
Stuttgart v Borussia Monchengladbach - Win 1.42 points.
Augsburg v Hoffenheim - Lose 2 points.
Real Sociedad v Celta Vigo - Win 1.52 points.
Levante v Villarreal - Lose 2 points.
Weekly Totals - Win 6.17 points.
Running Total - Lose 11.46 points.
Cardiff City v West Brom, Saturday 1500
Every season there are usually teams I follow on here due to personal opinion differing from the general consensus amongst odds compilers for the bookies. Cardiff this season seem to be one of them. I don't think they're going to be pulling up trees, but I think they are a better side than the odds suggest quite often. This match is a case in point and also benefits from the reverse being true about their opposition. I think it's actually quite an interesting dynamic in particular in WBA's case that I'll go into shortly. Cardiff are a perfectly decent side, with a pretty solid defence being helped by a strong central midfield that perhaps lacks a consistent goal threat. I think Frazier Campbell is a better player than Danny Welbeck though and a bit underrated. I would see Cardiff picking up plenty of points this season from sides around them due to being tough to beat and having a player like Gary Medel who would improve Man Utd, Liverpool and Chelsea's midfields.
On to my theory! Traditionally the odds for football, and most other sports, are derived with a decent amount of weight being given to past performance. In football this can often go back a season or two to get a broader sample size for calculations and hopefully a better average indication of performance. This will naturally be altered by the odds compilers, but they are still generally starting from the point of maths initially. The problem I see with this now is keenly indicated by WBA. Last season they were a terrific side who battled hard and then had Romelu Lukaku in particular getting them goals. They used the loan system very well to get him, but he has gone now and had a huge influence on how I would have set their odds, but the matches he was involved in have been included in the working out of the odds. This season they are not doing nearly as well, and are currently winless in five matches, and seventeen goals only is a major part of that. Where such an important player can now be moved around so easily I don't always think the loss is assessed in the setting of the odds, hence WBA are still being priced up as a side who should finish between seventh and tenth, when without a replacement goal threat they will be very unlikely to do so.
Back Cardiff City at 2.68 with PinnacleSports. 2 points.
West Ham v Sunderland, Saturday 1500
This is a match where I don't think the prices have been adjusted enough with the way the season is panning out. West Ham spent the majority of their transfer budget on Andy Carroll in the summer and he has been out injured for nearly all the season so far. This has seen them fielding either Modibo Maiga or Carlton Cole or no striker at all. The problem is exasperated by the midfield being very workmanlike, but not posing a threat on goal at all. As with most Sam Allardyce sides they are pretty resilient at the back, although this seems to be waning, but without a punch they simply won't win matches. They have now dropped to level on points with the relegation spots and I don't foresee an improvement before January when they can bring in a new striker. This ought to be a chance to get back on track, but Sunderland have at least looked like they're regularly trying.
I think Sunderland will still be very likely to be relegated to the Championship come the end of the season, let's start with that. Gus Poyet is probably a slightly better manager than Paolo Di Canio, but I don't necessarily think he has much hope of keeping the Black Cats in the Premier League. You can see there is a fight and focus that was previously lacking, but I don't think there is enough cohesiveness to the team or quality in key positions. John O'Shea and Wes Brown are seasoned professionals, but were never super fast and have slowed a lot at the back. Lee Cattermole is a constant accident in waiting in midfield and Jozy Altidore would probably be an effective player in a better side that could feed off him. That being said they are the side I'd be with at the odds this weekend.
Lay West Ham at 2.07 on Betfair. 2 points.
Lazio v Livorno, Sunday 1400
Lazio are a side surrounded by speculation of a change of coach at present. This is down to a run of six winless games, with only one win in the last nine matches. They haven't really invested in the playing staff too much for a few years now and the whole place seems a bit stagnant and under-motivated from the outside. The likes of Miroslav Klose and Hernanes are both fine players, but Klose is approaching retirement age and Hernanes looks bored most weekends. They should beat Livorno on paper, but odds of almost 1.5 in most places look far too short to my eyes.
Livorno started their season well and were hovering around the top seven after seven matches, but have since trailed off a bit. A 4-0 thrashing from a Napoli side in their best run seemed to be a blow to confidence, but they have rarely been well beaten since then. Their last four matches have seen them play Juventus, Inter Milan, Chievo away and AC Milan, not a great run for a side in Italy. They almost beat AC Milan last weekend, but a late Mario Balotelli equaliser levelled things up. On the handicaps they look appealing to me.
Back Livorno +1.0 at 2.1 with MarathonBet. 2 points.
Napoli v Inter Milan, Sunday 1945
Napoli almost did enough to qualify at Arsenal's expense in the Champions League last night by beating the Gunners 2-0 in Naples. Unfortunately for Rafa Benitez side they ran out of time to get a third goal and will drop into the Europa League. The win itself will be very welcome though after a terrible run which has had supporters questioning Benitez's methods. One win in four may not seem dreadful in Serie A, but it has coincided with Juventus going on a seven match winning streak and extending their lead over Napoli to eight points as we approach the winter break in Italy. Two of the losses were to Parma and Juventus themselves, who were down to ten men, and Napoli had looked lost in the absence of midfield maestro Marek Hamsik. I don't think their problems are over yet and they look short against a decent Inter Milan side.
A lot of credit for Napoli's rise through Italy has been rightly given to Inter Milan's new manager Walter Mazzari and he has quickly improved Inter too. They are currently failing to win enough matches to be challenging at the summit of the table, but have been beaten just once all season. They also have a league leading seven draws so far. I would actually prefer to be with them away from home as they are unbeaten so far with three wins and four losses, but it is their goals for and against that is most impressive. They have scored nineteen and conceded just six in those seven matches to show how hard a Napoli side the manager has an inside track on will find it.
Lay Napoli at 2.01 on Betfair. 2 points.
Levante v Elche, Friday 2000
This season Levante have not been as good to us as in previous seasons, but they haven't been being well beaten in the matches we have been with them. This gives me enough confidence to keep an eye on them a little longer as my reasoning for siding with them has always been how tough to beat they are more than that they will blow sides away. They come up against Elche in the Friday night match in La Liga. Levante are now below Elche in the table, and a lot of it is down to only winning one match in seven at home so far with three draws and three defeats. They have only been beaten by more than one goal in two matches this season, with one being against Barcelona away and the other against a seemingly very good Villarreal side. They look a little short to win this one though and turn the corner. I think I am in fact going to go against them!
Elche were promoted over the summer and have done fine in their first season in the Primera in a while. They sit in mid-table approaching the half way mark and also seem to have a tough to beat nature that their hosts share. Away from home they go two wins, three draws and two defeats. I personally think they are a little long in this match considering how tough they have also been to beat so I'll get against Levante for the first time in a long time.
Back Elche Draw No Bet at 2.5 with Stan James. 2 points.
Real Sociedad v Real Betis, Sunday 1600
Real Sociedad have seemingly actually decided that the Champions League is too much for them and instead concentrated on re-qualifying via the league. They didn't have an easy draw, but should have done better in a group containing an out of sorts Man Utd, Bayer Leverkusen and Shakhtar Donetsk. They seemed a bit awestruck on occasion and weren't putting in enough effort to do very well at all. But, they currently sit sixth in Spain and well positioned to have another shot at qualifying for the Champions League next season. Their home form is very strong with four wins, two draws and just one defeat, which was to Atletico Madrid. They have also scored sixteen and conceded just six in those seven matches. They have proven very capable of dispatching poorer sides with ease.
Which leads us on to a desperately poor Real Betis side. They currently sit rightly bottom of the table and were recently hammered 4-0 in their derby with Sevilla. Away from home they so far have a solitary point from their one draw with six losses also. They have scored just five in that time and conceded nineteen. The records tell a story here which looks ominous for Betis. Sociedad may look short, but I'm happy enough when you take into account the complete lack of quality or spirit at Betis.
Back Real Sociedad at 1.78 with PinnacleSports. 2 points.
Hannover 96 v Nurnberg, Saturday 1430
This one has made me take notice after thinking to leave Hannover alone for a while. They seem to not be getting the results they have in previous seasons and as a result currently languish in the bottom half of the table. However, a home record of won five, drawn two and lost just once is none too shabby at all. It is away from home where the problems lie and there aren't many easier matches than this one currently. The blip for Hannover seemed to be a 4-1 reverse at home by Hoffenheim where they were also reduced to nine men. This has led to one win in five since, but they simple 2-0 home win against Frankfurt in their last home match gives me confidence.
Nurnberg are still yet to win a match as we approach the winter break. They have drawn nine matches in total with their away record being drawn five and lost three. They have only scored fourteen goals in total, nine away from home, and this is a huge problem for them in a league like the Bundesliga that is high scoring. They have been beaten by most decent sides away and I think there's a pot of value in the Hannover price still at under even money.
Back Hannover 96 at 2.0 with SportingBet. 2 points.
Wolfsburg v Stuttgart, Saturday 1700
This one looks to me like it could be a great one to watch. Wolfsburg are currently flying pretty high in the table on the back of a great home record. They have played seven, won five, drawn one and lost just once with fourteen scored and just five conceded. What interests me is that they have conceded in four of their last five matches home and away and whether this suggests their defence is not as great as at first glance. Germany is a high scoring league anyway, but Wolfsburg have generally conceded a few in previous seasons and my thought is that the early season clean sheets are the blip not the norm.
This interests me because Stuttgart seem to be involved in some very high scoring matches and also seem to have no problem in going for goals at any cost. This tactic would seem to be further backed up by an away record of having won three, drawn one and lost four with fifteen scored and eighteen conceded. That they have scored as many away as a team in fifth, Wolfsburg themselves, have at home is quite something. They seem to tighten up at home a bit and play it slightly safer, or possibly don't get given the same time and space being an away side can sometimes achieve. I think Wolfsburg look a bit short at a general 1.7.
Lay Wolfsburg -1.0 Asian Handicap at 2.35 on Betfair. 2 points.
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