And so to the Last 16...

Hello and welcome to my brand spanking new blog. I will be updating as often as possible during the World Cup from now on. And on that note here are my thoughts on the 4 games we already have decided for this weekend.
I shall start with England v Germany as surely games come no bigger than this meeting of 2 of histories better teams. I think this one has the potential to be a very interesting match-up with neither team putting out their strongest teams ever and I personally think it'll be a classic! Germany's strengths are their youthful team, pace up front and typical lack of nerves. Their weaknesses are a ponderous backline, massive reliance on Ozil to create and their relatively small size. England on the other hand are very experienced, in Rooney they have one of the world's best players when playing well and a truly exceptional manager who has seen it all, and won it all too! I think the result will hang on 2 players performances and the tactics employed by the managers. Ozil for Germany and Rooney for England are the men that the creativity and best moves will come from. Don't get me wrong, both are more than ably assisted, Rooney by Gerrard and Ozil by, one of my favourite players so far, Sami Khedira. Saying this though I think this game may be decided by a moment of artistry from one of these two. So far my money would be on Ozil to do this as he has been playing superbly in the tournament. However, he is still relatively inexperienced being only 21, and Rooney has shown he can perform on the highest stage and looked much improved against Slovenia.
I think both teams central defenders are susceptible to pace and a ball over the top. With this in mind I would expect if one of these managers to be looking to get strikers in behind the opposition and they should get chances that way. I would also expect Rooney and Ozil to be playing these balls through. The problem with this is that neither side favour playing a quick forward, both often choosing to play a player that's good in the air and can hold the ball up. Heskey will be likely to start again for England and Klose for Germany. Personally if I was either one of these managers I'd be tempted to take a chance on a smaller, quicker forward like Defoe for England or Cacau for Germany. I think this positive change could reap huge dividends for the brave manager.
From a betting perspective I would be looking at a low-scoring game with both teams being cancelled out, under 2.5 goals at a widely available 8/15. I would also fancy the full-backs to pick up bookings with quick wingers against defensively suspect full-backs. Glen Johnson and Holger Badstuber would be my tips in that market. I would also be tempted to dabble with the method of victory markets for some longer odds. Both are avilable at 9/1 to win in extra-time and 10/1 to win on penalties. Personally I would think Engalnd's experience will count the longer it goes on and would back them in either or both markets.
I will put further posts up soon about the other 3 games.