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Tuesday, 29 June 2010

The last of the Last 16...

And so we finally reach the last of the 2nd Round World Cup matches. And it's a match up between the home of one of my favourite beers against the home of one of my favourite cuisines (a bit of a personal insight for everyone there!). It's Portugal, Sagres Lager Beer, up against Spain, tapas (the perfect accompaniment to drinking said lager beer!). Anyway, enough of that, let's assess the 2 teams.

Spain v Portugal, Kick-Off 730pm UK Time
Defence

I will start by assessing Spain, although after their success in the Euro's 2 years ago and Barcelona's domination of Europe, I'm sure you're all well aware of who they are. At right-back we have the Real Madrid love-machine Sergio Ramos, a man who claims he plays better the more women he sleeps with! Whilst he was often criticised for his lack of defensive positioning when younger he has matured into a fine full-back who is useful in defence and attack. At left-back it's stalwart Joan Capdevilla, a steady-Eddy if ever there was one. He is like a metronome running up and down and rarely caught out of position at either end. In the centre we have the Barcelona pairing of Gerard Pique and Carles Puyol. Puyol, he of the magnificent poodle style hair, is Mr Barcelona/Catalunya. Vastly experienced at the top level and the leader of the team in a John Terry style, albeit with vastly more ability. Gerard Pique is the ball-playing part of the pair and can often be found majestically striding forward setting up attacks. In goal is Iker Casillas, although I personally think the time has come for him to be dropped. He has been dropping clanger after clanger for the past season whilst Valdes of Barcelona and Reina of Liverpool have more than earnt their chance.
For Portugal, whilst not necessarily as easily recognisable by their names, are a very good defensive unit. One that only conceded 6 goals in their last 16 games leading to the World Cup ans only 1 so far in the World Cup. Carlos Queiros clearly recognised the fact Portugal seem incapable of producing a single decent central striker and reasoned that not conceding was the best way to start with Portugal. A very good decision and one that has been backed up by results. It's Valencia's Miguel at right-back, an immensely fit full-back who is capable of popping up in attacking positions then being back to cover defensively in the blink of an eye. At left-back it's Coentrao, a player I hadn't heard much about before the tournament, but one who has impresses me so far. He has got assists as well as being a disciplined performer at the back when required. In the centre is one of the best pairings at the World Cup in my opinion with Bruno Alves partnering Chelsea's Ricky Carvalho. Alves has been emerging as one of Europe's best centre halves at Porto over the past couple of seasons and Carvalho, whilst not the force of old, is a brilliant reader of the game.

Midfield
This is where Spain are outstanding and play in the tiki-taka style so easily recognisable to anyone who has seen Barcelona play under Pep Guardiola. It's all short passes and movement into space and then pressing whenever they lose the ball, which isn't often! Sergio Busquets provides the defensive presence in the middle 3. Whilst nowhere near as technically gifted as his midfield compatriots he is a vital cog nonetheless. He is a master of 'tactical fouling' in the Mark Van Bommel mode and often breaks up the oppositions play before reaching dangerous areas. In the middle it is Xabi Alonso and Xavi Hernandez of Barcelona. Alonaso performs a deeper role taking the ball from the defence and giving it long or short as he did at Liverpool for the forwards and Xavi to weave their patterns. Xavi himself is the epitome of Barcelona's style. He is rumoured in Catalunya to have neer given the ball away and it's easy to see how such a rumour started. He treats the ball like a precious jewel and wont let the opposition anywhere near it.
Portugal are a mix of journeymen and class-acts. Pepe, the Real Madrid centre-back, plays a defensive midfield role for Portugal. As you'd imagine he rarely pops up in attack and is pretty happy to sit in front of the centre backs. Raul Meireles, the one with the tattoos, ans Tiago are the other men in a midfield 3. Both are given some licence to attack given that they know Pepe will always provide cover and both have been known to pop up with the odd goal.
I can only see Spain coming out on top in this battle. Pepe, as a converted centre back, is a fairly lumbering presence and I can see him being given the run-around by the little triangles Spain will play with their passing. Whilst Portugal haven't conceded many I think that is down to the quality of opposition and Spain will surely have chances here.

Attack
Again in attack the Spanish names will be very familiar to all. It is Iniesta of Barcelona and David Villa,who joins him there at Barcelona next season, behind Spain's own Kevin Davies, Fernando Torres! This isn't a dig at Torres, clearly he is a brilliant player, but more a recognition of the role he performs in this Spain team. Iniesta and Villa link up with Alonso and Xavi in midfield passing and moving until space opens up before trying one-two's or shooting. Torres is the outlet for a longer ball from Alonso or Pique to hold it up or lay it off. He hasn't scored in over a year internationally, but that has hardly harmed Spain, with one loss since Euro 2008. Villa, for me, is the best striker in World football for pure goalscoring ability. He can score with his head, his left, his right, from distance and tap-ins. He is, simply put, sensational (in a purely heterosexual way). Iniesta is the man Wayne Rooney described as 'he best in the world'. While I wouldn't normally trust Mr Potato Head's opinions I think he is bang on with that. He is all work-rate, unselfish and scores too. In short Spain are the world's best attacking unit!
Portugal have everyones favourite preening, sulking, diving and yet brilliant forward, Cristiano Ronaldo. He is the man Portugal look to to create chances and score goals. Personally I think he often tries to do too much and would benefit from being a bit less greedy, but he's done alright so far like that so who am I to judge? He can strike from distance and is a presence in the penalty area due to his physique. Whilst no-one rates him quite as much as he rates himself, on his day he is capable of destroying teams on his own when everything comes off (including those generally terrible freekicks of his). On the oppsite side to him is Danny of Zenit St Petersburg. Whilst not a name some people may have heard of Zenit saw fit to pay £20m for him 2 years ago and he destroyed Man Utd in the UEFA Super Cup. He hasn't really done it in the World Cup so far, but it's all in this lads locker when he's on form. Duda often makes up the front 3 and he is from the tradition of truly God-awful Portugese central forwards. He is there to give it to Ronaldo and Danny basically and performs this role adequately.
Again I see Spain winning this match up. As mentioned, Portugal's recent defensive stats are fantastic, but they haven't played a team of this power going forward in that time. Spain, and Villa in particular, should give Portugal's defence recurring nightmares with their movement. I see it being a tight game, but Spain's class shouldshine through.

Betting
As I've mentioned I can see this being a tight game and I would bet accordingly. I would look at under 2.5 goals at around 8/15 widely available. I would also look at Spain to win in extra-time or on penalties, these are available at 10's at bet365. I would also look at backing David Villa for anytime scorer as I think he's nailed on here, you can get 4's at Stan James for that.

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