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Monday, 28 June 2010

Marching on in the Last 16...

So, here we are, still reeling from the lesson ze Germans taught England yesterday afternoon. As I thought England's centre backs looked very uncomfortable trying to deal with balls over the top, although even I wouldn't have predicted such a bad performance!
So, let's have a look at today's 2 matches and I am going to assess the teams in a different structure this time. I will look at the defence, then midfield, then attackers for both teams in turn. Then I will have a look at the betting at the end of each games assessment.

Holland v Slovakia, Kick-Off 3pm UK time.
Defence
Holland have so far only conceded 1 goal in 3 matches in the World Cup and only conceded 2 in the qualifying campaign. Whilst a lot of people, myself included, are not familiar with the names of some of the players in Holland's defence they are obviously a very successful unit. They know that first and foremost they are there to defend and whilst the full-backs are capable of attacking they are both disciplined. I had seen the young right-back Gregory Van Der Wiel's name mentioned with regards to a big move soon and I can understand why. He is defensively sound, very athletic and can get forward when necessary, he reminds me of Maicon of Brazil, and I can't offer higher praise than that! Van Bronckhorst at left-back has obviously been around for a while, and whilst he is definitely no spring-chicken, he has all the nous he has gained with his vast experience. Stekelenburg in goal has played a lot for Ajax in the last few years and is a steadying influence at the back too.
Now, I will have to concede that I am not massively familiar with Slovakia's team individually, although I was very impressed with the way they put out holders Italy with their 3-2 victory in the group stage. Similarly to Holland the defence have played together for a few years now giving them the familiarity that comes with that. Marek Cech of West Brom and Martin Skrtel of Liverpool are names that readers may recognise from English football. They are definitely a typical no-nonsense Eastern European team at the back, you wont see Skrtel striding out of defence to set up attacks! They conceded 10 goals in 10 games in qualifying and 4 in 3 so far at this World Cup. I would summise form this that they are fairly resolute, but definitely there for picking off as if you look at their qualifying group it was very weak. Whilst respect should be given for topping the group, they did concede to San Marino!

Midfield
After a period of exile under Marco Van Basten, Bert Van Marjiik has re-instated his son-in-law Mark Van Bommel to the centre of midfield next to Man City's destroyer Nigel De Jong. These 2 allow Holland's more creative midfielders to shine without having to worry too much about defensive responsibility. I am a huge fan of both players personally, Van Bommel's experience allows him to make 'tactical fouling' an art-form, as anyone who watched Bayern Munich's progression in Europe this year will surely identify! Nigel De Jong might not receive the plaudits that some of his more illustrious team-mates at Man City do, but in my eyes he is every bit as good as the oft-heralded Javier Mascherano if not even better due to his bigger and more athletic physique. Van Der Vaart and Sneijder are the 2 more attacking midfielders ans are the men I would expect to pull Slovakia about and run the game. If these 2 are on form then I can see Slovakia getting a sound beating here. For me, Wesley Sneijder was the most important player in Europe last year, guiding Inter Milan to a treble of Champions League, Serie A and the Copa Italia. He played in a similar position for Inter as he will for Holland pulling the strings behind the forwards and is also a dead-ball specialist to boot. Van Der Vaart was expected to be Holland's next world superstar when he came through the Ajax academy, and whilst never hitting those heights he is a fine player too in good form from the end of the season at Real Madrid.
For Slovakia there are a few players fans of European football may have heard of. Marek Hamsik of Napoli is often mentioned as being the target of many a big team and it is easy to see why. The captain of this Slovakia team is an intelligent player with a keen eye for a pass and a good shot from distance too. Slovakia will look to him to improve on his World Cup performances so far if they are to get a result today. Stanislav Sestak provides the experience in midfield. The 34 year old Bochum player may be getting on, but in a fairly young team his nous and experience is vital. They also have 2 exciting young players currently in English teams squads, Miroslav Stoch at Chelsea and Vladimir Weiss at Man City. Both of these players have impressed in smaller leagues on loan this season, Weiss at Twente in Holland and Stoch at Galatasaray in Turkey, and will hope to continue this form at the World Cup to force their way into Premier League squads or to gain a move elsewhere. I would expect Holland's players vast experience at this level and in Europe with their clubs will see them overpower Slovakia and dominate possession. Marek Hamsik will need to have the game of his life to give Slovakia a hope!

Attack
Again, in attack Holland are very strong. They have been playing with Van Persie off Kuyt with Van Der Vaart and Sneijder coming through to provide extra support. And if those 4 players don't fill you with fear then frankly you're inhuman! I have mentioned Van Der Vaart and Sneijder already so I'll move on to Kuyt and Van Persie. Dirk Kuyt is the sort of man who divides football fans opinions. To some he is the willing worker up-front that lets the more creative and skilful players do their thing. But, to me he is Holland's Emile Heskey! Although saying that he does provide more of a goal-threat and has been known to score some important goals, so maybe I'm wrong. Holland certainly haven't suffered with him in the team. Van Persie is one of those if-only tales where he seems destined not to reach his undoubted potential due to injuries. He regularly has scored for both Holland and Arsenal when fit and has looked good since returning from injury at the very end of the Premier League season. I would expect him to give Slovakia's centre backs a torrid time today and will often unleash a thunderbolt from his rocket of a left foot.
Slovakia's main man, and all time joint record goalscorer (with ex-Middlesborough 'star' Szilard Nemeth!) is Robert Vittek. He was out-scored by the more experienced Sestak, but he does the hard-running and will be expected to hold the ball up a lot to let the midfielders, especially Sestak and Hamsik bomb on. This will be especially important today to give his defence some respite with Holland's attack no doubt working the Slovak defence hard. It is a hell of a task and I think this will be too much to ask of him in this match.

Betting
As you may have gathered from my write-up I can only see one result today, and that's a victory for Holland. They were widely available to finish the match in 90 minutes at 1/2 and I would fully expect them to do that. I would also look for them to cover a one goal handicap at around 10/11 if you want a bit more value. I'd be loath to handicap them more than that as so far their attack have not quite clicked and opened the floodgates. With that in mind I would also look at backing under 2.5 goals at around the even money mark and I'd also take a look at Holland to keep a clean-sheet at around 10/11.

I will be back with my thoughts on the Brazil v Chile game later.

1 comment:

  1. that late penner destroyed an otherwise sound prediction!

    ReplyDelete