Some cracking matches last weekend for the viewer, as well as a profitable one for followers. I didn't post any midweek tips as I'm no gambler on friendlies myself. Always hard to evaluate a non-competitive match, made even harder by withdrawals from squads and pressure from clubs not to tire players out.
As far as last weekend goes the most interesting match was definitely the North London derby between Arsenal and Spurs at The Emirates. Arsenal looked like their horrendous run was going to continue when they went 2-0 down before half time, but rallied to make it 2-2 at the break before going on to win 5-2. Some may have noticed a slight softening towards Harry Redknapp of late by myself, and I do still think he may well coax slightly more out of England's players, but there is something I fell has not been widely publicised and is a major mark against him. Namely, it is the fact that in all the success Spurs have had, they have rarely won the matches against the very best sides in the league. There is nothing wrong with beating everyone you really should, but both Eriksson and Capello did that. What the media and many seem to be calling for is a manager who can beat the best sides when put up against them, and Redknapp does not seem to have that in his resume. I foresee a slightly improved spirit when he assumes the role, but I don't see any significant progress towards winning a tournament.
Music comes from Mixtapes with And If We Both Fail?
Blackburn v Aston Villa, Saturday 1500
Two teams who have their own fans against them at present. Venky's moved to assure Rovers fans that no more key players would be sold this week, convenient really as the transfer window is shut so they couldn't sell them anyway. I have read that there is another protest about their ownership this weekend, and they can hardly be blamed. Saying this it does seem that the players and Steve Kean are trying their very best in very difficult circumstances and are getting some good results. The win against Man Utd over xmas being the standout result. They do have good attackers, and in Yakubu they have a striker many sides would take as a first choice, but the defence often lets them down. If they are to survive the drop to the Championship then they need to win these sorts of games.
Villa fans have a well earned reputation as whingers, but surely everyone can understand their moans this season as the unwanted Alex McCleish presides over some awful football, which isn't even grinding out results. They are simply horrendous to watch and with Darren Bent now missing and Charles N'Zogbia ostracised from the first team things could get worse yet. There is no invention to their play and McCleish seems happy to play out most of the ninety minutes without conceding before looking for a late clincher. Not what the fans consider their money's worth, and the calls for his head will only increase of they continue to hover dangerously close to the relegation spots.
Back Blackburn Rovers at 2.5 on Betfair.
Wigan v Swansea, Saturday 1500
Whilst we're on the subject of sides in trouble, Wigan are currently bottom of the table and are really in danger of being cut adrift if things don't improve. The source of their problems lies in the fact that they do not have a reliable regular goalscorer. Hugo Rodallega is nominally their centre forward, but he is more of a creator than a predator and they are struggling to get ahead in games due to this lack of cutting edge. Those that support manager Roberto Martinez will point to the fact that he gets the team playing 'properly', but it will also have to be accepted that this refusal to resort to blunter tactics may well see them finally drop out of the top division.
Under Brendan Rodgers Swansea have also been playing football on the floor and have picked up many plaudits for doing so this season. They are similar to Barcelona in that they don't have defenders who you would necessarily pick out as brilliant by any means, but the rest of the side use possession to keep the threat away and then press as a team when they want the ball back. When you add this to the attacking threat of Scott Sinclair's pace, Danny Graham's goal threat and loanee Gylffi Sigurdsson's flair and it is a potent mix. Much better sides than Wigan have fallen to the Swans and I can see them getting something here.
Back Swansea Draw No Bet at 2.2 with Ladbrokes.
Athletic Bilbao v Real Sociedad, Sunday 1500
Bilbao have appeared numerous times in this column so far this season, and I still think they can offer good value when pitted against the right sides. They have always been a tough side to beat at home and that has slightly reduced this season, and it's something Marcelo Bielsa will be keen to reinstate. They certainly have some brilliant players in the likes of Iker Muniain and this summers major European target Javi Martinez. Most of the big sides in Europe have apparently been casting their eyes over the physically impressive specimen who can play equally adeptly in central midfield or central defence and is a natural leader. He shouldn't have any trouble getting his teammates fired up for the Basque derby though.
Sociedad have seemingly hovered around mid table for all of this season and look like they will end up there too. Their home record is good, but they have been let down away from home. They have only won three times in twelve matches away from home and have lost seven whilst only scoring twelve and conceding twenty two. In their last away match they were thrashed 4-1 by promoted Granada and again had a man sent off. They have been reduced to ten men on five occasions so far, and in the heat of this bitter rivalry I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen again. They will struggle against Bilbao as it is, to lose a man would really set them back.
Back Athletic BIlbao -1.0 at 2.11 at BetVictor.
Udinese v Atalanta, Sunday 1400
One of my favourite sides to back this year have been Udinese, and in particular when they are at home. They have only lost once at home all season and also only drawn twice. All this whilst scoring twenty three goals to give them an almost two a game average and only conceding seven. This has led me to handicapping them on occasion, especially against poor away sides or low scorers. The goals of Antonio Di Natale continue to flow and after the international break he will have had plenty of rest and be raring to go. After a slip up to Fiorentina compounded by defeat at home by Milan, they have turned things round with a draw and then a 3-1 away victory over the greatly improved Bologna last time out to have them once again believing in a title push.
Atalanta look to be safe from relegation this season and that is mostly down to their home form. They have only lost twice at home all season and in those thirteen matches the defence has held firm only conceding ten. However comma away from home they have been a mixed bag. They have won three, drawn five and lost for whilst conceding eighteen. It is this that will need to be improved upon if they are to push for the top half of the table. They will not relish a trip to Udinese and I think they will struggle.
Back Udinese -0.5 at 1.96 with Ladbrokes.
Hannover 96 v Augsburg, Saturday 1430
One of last seasons surprise sides in the Bundesliga was Hannover and they have impressed again this season, just not quite as regularly. They play a pressing game which is maintained by having lots of young, committed players who are willing to do the running necessary to make these tactics work. They have been very impressive at home so afr and stand still unbeaten after eleven home matches. In these they have scored nineteen and conceded twelve. Since the xmas break they have only been defeated once home or away and that was in a rather unlucky 3-1 loss to top of the table Dortmund. Before that they had drawn two and won three out of five, with two wins and a draw at home. They aim to keep it tight at the back in the main and look to nick the odd goal. I think they are capable of more in this though.
Augsburg came back to the Bundesliga over the summer and have looked a little out of their depth for long periods. They lie fourth from bottom and a lot of that can be put down to not scoring enough, and their dreadful away form. This away record reads won one, drawn four and lost seven whilst only scoring ten, but conceding twenty four. They did have a good win last time out, but it was against the equally poor Hertha Berlin who still haven't properly recovered from Markus Babbel's resignation.
Back Hannover 96 -1.0 at 2.3 with Bet365.
Nurnberg v Monchengladbach, Sunday 1430
Nurnberg have been mid table most of the season and look to be well clear of relegation, but too far away from the summit to have any European aspirations. They do have a fairly solid side, but they lack creativity and a goal threat and it stops them from winning as many as they'd like to. At home they have four wins, three draws and four losses and have scored fourteen whilst conceding fifteen. In fact, in twenty three matches home and away they have only scored twenty two goals, which is very poor by Bundesliga standards.
Another column favourite are Monchengladbach and they appear again here. I do still think they are being underestimated by odds compilers at present. They have proven over almost two thirds of the season that they deserve to be considered alongside Bayern and Dortmund, but are always much longer prices. They don't score loads, but they have got thirty seven in twenty three matches due to the quality of attackers like Marco Reus. It is the goals against column that reveal their biggest strength. In those twenty three matches they have only conceded fourteen. Away from home they don't do draws, only one so far with six wins and four losses. They are also still unbeaten since the xmas break and I think it is well worth backing them to triumph here.
Back Borussia Monchengladbach at 2.5 with BetVictor.
Fenerbahce v Genclerbirligi, Saturday 1700
Fener splashed the cash over the winter break to attempt to claw back the lead city rivals Galatasaray had built and so far it is looking further away than ever. They now trail by nine points and again failed to win last weekend to put the pressure on. They may well have spent big, but they have bought lots of attackers when a more sensible option might have been to tighten up a very leaky defence. They have not won away since xmas and have only kept a clean sheet in two of eleven matches since the break. They also seem to have trouble starting matches properly and have been behind at half time in six of those eleven recent matches.
Genclerbirligi have managed to stay in touch with the big boys and currently lie fifth, only behind Fener, Gala, Besiktas and Trabzon. This has largely been down to their forward with only three sides having scored more goals at this stage of the Super Lig. They take the same cavalier approach that has paid dividends for Sivasspor with most sides having poor defensive players they attack relentlessly in the hope that they will score more than the opposition. In their last six matches there have been over 3.5 goals in four and I wouldn't bet against it again here.
Back Over 3.5 Goals at 2.62 with Paddy Power.
Besiktas v Trabzonspor, Sunday 1700
The big game over the weekend in the Super Lig sees giants Besiktas take on the biggest side from outside of Istanbul Trabzonspor at home. Besiktas were very unfortunate to lose an end to end encounter with Gala last Sunday that ended 3-2 to Gala after a 92nd minute winner. The black and whites raised their game and showed why Fenerbahce should be worried more about being caught by Besiktas than catching Gala. Whilst they have been fallible away from home, they have a great record in Istanbul. They have played fourteen at home winning nine, drawing three and only losing twice. They have also scored twenty four and conceded fourteen.
Trabzonspor are now out of Europe having been eliminated by PSV and have possibly left it too late to mount a proper title assault with Gala so far ahead. They have again relied heavily upon the goals of star forward Yilmaz and some good home form to keep them in fourth spot in the table. They have seemed distracted recently and have uncharacteristically shipped a lot of goals. They have only won one of the last four and have conceded nine in those matches, including a dreadful home 2-3 defeat by Mersin Idman last weekend. They would have wanted an easier fixture this weekend.
Back Besiktas at 2.3 with Stan James.
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