Well, once again we find ourselves at the weekend, assessing the merits of all the matches and betting accordingly. Last weekend ended up in a small loss unfortunately, but those who follow @TopTopTips on the Twitter will have boosted the coffers with a few midweek winners.
Whilst on the subject of midweek football, we should mention Arsenal's 'brave' comeback against AC Milan. One of the words I always cringe when seeing in football parlance is 'brave'. Almost coming back from 4-0 down has absolutely nothing to do with bravery, what exactly is there to be scared of? Anyway, Arsenal managed to start like a train and were 3-0 up at half time with many fans and neutrals willing one of the most impressive turnarounds in years. However, once Alex Oxade-Chamberlain faded due to injury, sadly so did the Gunners. You could look at this as a positive in that he is already so important, or as a negative as Arsenal really shouldn't be relying on someone so young and raw to start any good play for them. The two Manchester clubs also lost in their Europa League first legs, with United by far the bigger losers. City lost to Sporting Lisbon 1-0 in Lisbon and showed enough to suggest they should breeze the second leg. United were beaten 2-3 at home by Athletic Bilbao, and they looked all at sea defensively for long periods. Once again the midfield was completely useless against a team willing to press and Fernando Llorente had a predictably easy time up against United's centre halves. It is going to be hard for United to turn this one round.
Music comes from I Am The Avalanche with I'll Be Back Around.
Bolton v QPR, Saturday 1245
It might not seem like it is that stage yet, but we are fast approaching the business end of the season all round Europe. In the Premier League most sides now have 11 matches left to play. Bolton have been abject for the majority of this season so far, and it seems strange that the fans have not been more vocal about this. It seems coming across as a nice guy, and preaching about playing 'the right way' can buy you more time in the hotseat. Owen Coyle started his life at the Trotter's well and has made some very astute loan signings to bolster his squad in the past, but this season this has not happened. The problem is obviously quality, but a look at their form table shows that they have won as many matches as Aston Villa, but have lost four more than any other side in the division. They have only two draws to their name.
QPR sacked Neil Warnock over xmas and installed Mark Hughes with the intention of arresting a worrying slide of poor results. So far this has not happened. Although Hughes was given considerably more money than most of the league's managers over January, the side has not gotten perceivably better yet. The likes of Djibril Cisse and Bobby Zamora have proven themselves at this level before, but for whatever reason they are not firing under Hughes yet. It is goals they are struggling for and with six of the current top seven left after this to play they could do with a win. However, I think the lack of goals may well haunt them again.
Back Bolton at 2.5 with William Hill.
Norwich City v Wigan, Sunday 1600
It is a measure of how far Norwich have come this season that they are odds on for this match against something of a Premier league stalwart in Wigan. They have featured heavily in this column throughout the season and have definitely given us all profit as the bookmakers were naturally cautious of a newly promoted side, giving punters decent returns. There is no secret to their success really, they're a well organised side who will put in the hard yards and get physical when necessary. Players like Grant Holt and Steve Morison who have risen from much lower levels have given Premier League defenders a torrid time with their approach. The likes of John Ruddy in goal have also recently received much deserved calls from some quarters for England recognition (he's a Cambridge United lad, don't you know!).
Wigan look like they will finally plunge back out of the Premier League this season, and personally I can't say I'll mourn their disappearance. Many will tell you Roberto Martinez has them playing good stuff and should be commended for sticking to his footballing principles, but I completely disagree. Playing pretty triangles occasionally and getting absolutely nowhere with it is bad management. I am not suggesting Big Sam era Bolton, but at least that got wins and kept Bolton in the league. There are some good footballers in the Wigan ranks, but they need help from some more direct players at times, particularly a striker who can actually score. I get the impression Martinez would turn his nose up at Grant Holt, and that says everything for me.
Back Norwich at 1.9 with Totesport.
Valencia v Mallorca, Sunday 1500
Valencia have once again tied up their 'best of the rest' tag in Spain, even having once again sold their best players to service their huge debt. Those who accuse Spain of being just like the SPL are somewhat missing the point I think. Whilst Barcelona and Madrid are miles better than the rest of the Primera, they would also be miles better whichever European league you dropped them in to. If you look at the European competitions this season teams like Valencia and Athletic Bilbao have shown they can compete with the best the continent has to offer, except the big two in Spain. The only problem they sometimes have can be a mid-season lull as it all becomes too easy and they realise they're stuck in third again. They will want to keep the winning habit going now though, as they are bidding for Europa League glory as well as consolidating that third spot in La Liga.
Mallorca have been struggling on limply for a couple of seasons now. They pick up just enough wins at home to scrape above the basement, but they are nowhere near climbing any higher than that. They are yet another club that has suffered from the lopsided TV money sharing in Spain that sees Barca and Real grab almost 80% I believe and therefore leaves everyone else fighting for scraps. Without a rich backer this means clubs like Mallorca almost have to get into debt to compete. They have only scored eight in twelve whilst conceding eighteen this season away from home so Valencia should do this comfortably.
Back Valencia -1.0 Asian Handicap at 1.96 with Ladbrokes.
Catania v Fiorentina, Sunday 1400
One team who has exceeded expectations in Serie A this season is Catania. They were in the bottom half of the division last season and dispensed with their coach to appoint the untried Vincenzo Montella to manage this time out. Many will remember him from his successful playing days at Roma, and a short loan spell at Fulham in the twilight of his career. He has made them a very tidy little side though, tough to beat and with a decent forward line too. At home they have won six, drawn four and lost only two. And they have also scored a healthy eighteen whilst only conceding half that. They are also on the back of one loss in the past eight, although there has been a few draws.
Fiorentina have not kicked on as many of their fans would have hoped after their quick return to the highest level following their demotion for bankruptcy. They have qualified for Europe in the past, but have looked like even that is too much for them the past two seasons. They have certainly missed the injured Stefan Jovetic during his lengthy absences. They have been particularly poor away from home with only a solitary win from thirteen with five draws and seven losses. They have failed to win in five away matches recently.
Back Catania at 2.15 with Ladbrokes.
Mainz 05 v Nurnberg, Saturday 1430
A side who impressed most neutrals, but have failed to get going this year are Mainz in Germany's Bundesliga. They stalled for a long time and have recently kick started after the return of their talisman of years gone by, Mohamed Zidan. The Egyptian is a class act who has also strangely struggled whenever he has been away from Mainz. This is his third spell and naturally he is a huge fan favourite. He has scored in all five of the matches he has played in so far on this loan. They don't draw many anyway, with five wins and five losses and two draws at home so far, matches tend to be decided with a win for either side. They have also only lost once since Zidan's return, and that was to table topping Dortmund.
Nurnberg have been almost the opposite of Mainz in that they have slightly exceeded expectations to sit in the top half currently. The issue they have had has been scoring goals with any regularity, as a For column reading only twenty three in twenty four in a high scoring division like the Bundesliga will attest to. They have only drawn once away from home all season with four wins and seven losses the other results. They are on a three match winning streak, but I think Mainz have enough to end that on Saturday afternoon.
Back Mainz 05 at 2.1 with Boylesports.
Wolfsburg v Bayer Leverkusen, Saturday 1430
After the Steve McClaren experiment ended last season Wolfsburg have settled back into being a mid-table side who could push for Europe given the opportunity. Obviously it was not that long ago they won the Bundesliga, but that was a bit of a freak season when players, form and others failings all combined to give them a shot, which they took. They play in the Volkswagen Arena and that has always been a bit of a fortress for them. This season has seen this continue with seven wins, two draws and only three losses at home all season. They have scored nineteen and conceded thirteen to somewhat mask their truly horrendous away record.
Leverkusen would have hoped to have given Barcelona a harder match in midweek, and would have been full of confidence after beating Bayern Munich last weekend in the league. However comma this did not happen. Lionel Messi once again showed why he probably is the best player the world has ever seen and scored five goals. For stats fans that is more in one match than Torres has in his entire Chelsea career so far. Leverkusen therefore do have only the league left to play for, but this defeat may well take a bit of getting over. They have found it harder going away and it should be a chance for Wolfsburg to capitalise.
Back Wolfsburg Draw No Bet at 2.2 with BlueSq.
Manisaspor v Mersin Idman Yurdu, Sunday 1100
No side has faded from a good start quite like Manisaspor. In the early stages they sat as high as fourth in the table after some very good home performances, they now lie second bottom only to the dreadful Ankaragucu who have already been relegated. They have not won at home since November and have also only won one match since the winter break. They are possibly the worst side in the Super Lig at present. They have managed to concede even more at home with twenty than the eighteen they've conceded away and look doomed.
Mersin did not start too well, but have found their feet enough to now be comfortably safe from the threat of relegation. What is very strange is that this is on the back of excellent away form. In the Super Lig it is nearly always home form which contributes most of a sides points, but Mersin are bucking this trend. They have won an amazing seven from fourteen away, which is comfortably more than all but table topping Galatasaray. They have to be backed for this.
Back Mersin Idman Yurdu at 3.1 with SportingBet.
Eskisehirspor v Bursaspor, Sunday 1700
Last up this week is column regulars Bursa travelling to Eskisehirspor. Eski were last seasons over-achievers due mainly to superior home form and an uncanny ability to eke out tight wins. They are incredibly well drilled and will very rarely open up to play at all. This means they can keep the scores level for long periods and wait for an opportunity to score from an opposition mistake or a set-piece. This is backed up by only conceding a very good twenty six in twenty nine matches home and away split evenly between the two. They also thrashed Ankaragucu last week on the back of a great 2-1 win against Fenerbahce the week before.
Bursa have recently improved to move steadily into the top half of the table. However, their poor first half of the season has left them with too much to do for a European qualifying spot. They have moved back up to eighth spot, but it is their away form that has been the biggest concern. They have played thirteen away and only won four, drawn four and lost five so far. They have also conceded a whopping twenty in those matches to leave themselves with far too much to do to get back on level terms when travelling.
Back Eskisehirspor at 2.55 at SportingBet.
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