Unfortunately last weekend was the worst in a while for the blog. We started well with the German match coming in, but then only saw the Italian Double and laying Atletico Madrid come good for the rest of the weekend. With a very small loss midweek from 3 Euro competitions tips, it has not been my finest period. Hopefully I can improve on these figures over the weekend.
As mentioned, midweek was mostly concerned with the Euro Cups, the 'Champions' League and the Europa League. Whilst I have mentioned before how I shy away from any meaningful bets on the Europa League for most of it's duration, I feel safer now that we have reached the Quarter Final stage. You'd hope teams would now be taking it seriously. The Champions League this week saw only one real surprise with Chelsea winning away at Benfica. Obviously it wasn't a huge shock, Chelsea re far from a poor side, but nevertheless I would have expected more from Benfica. They have been relatively impressive in topping Man Utd's group and progressing this far, only to fairly tamely surrender any home advantage they had and leave themselves staring exit in the face.
I personally find there is often some value available in the Europa League if you have a root around at teams recent form and how their domestic campaigns are going. This week I thought AZ Alkmaar were brilliant value at a shade under 3.0 at home to Valencia, and I was proven correct. The Dutch side are no mugs and have challenged for the Eredivisie title in recent seasons. Valencia are obviously a good side, but one that is hopelessly out of form at the moment. The lead that looked unassailable for third spot in La Liga now looks increasingly fragile. The fans have never took to the studious coach Unai Emery and now results have finally gone backwards the atmosphere is terrible and is contributing to the malaise displayed on the pitch.
Music is from Millencolin with Farewell My Hell.
Wigan v Stoke City, Saturday 1500
Now, you may have gathered I have been running something of a personal campaign to see Wigan removed from the Premier League due to the lack of local support and the fact they are rubbish for 80% of every season. I am tired of them surviving by the skin of their teeth every year and it looks like they may well spite me again. They have been as good as bottom for a long while until recently when they somehow managed to get two wins on the spin to give them a chance of staying up. Last weekends win away at Anfield obviously grabbed headlines as it continued Liverpool's wretched recent form, but Wigan again showed they seem to be able to raise their game when really required. There has always been some talented players there, it is a shame they seem unable to play well until the threat of the drop looms large.
Stoke looked in a spot of bother mid-season when it seemed like their Europa League run may well leave their league status in jeopardy. They have not got a large squad and fighting on all fronts was costing them dearly. The experience will be good for them though, and now they have exited that competition their league form has also stabilised and they seem comfortably mi-table once again. They are now without a win in three matches though and look like another side where Wigan can gain valuable points. They're going to stay up again aren't they?
Back Wigan at 2.7 with Boylesports.
Newcastle v Liverpool, Sunday 1330
Newcastle have recently got back to winning ways and are again not out of the race for a Champions League spot. January signing Papiss Cisse has impressed a lot with five goals in his first six appearances further outlining the depth of stupidity behind Liverpool's signing of Andy Carroll. Cisse had an excellent record of scoring in the German Bundesliga for a smaller side and yet this proven record was deemed to value him at less than a third of what Liverpool paid for Carroll, the English tax indeed. Anyway, the Magpie's have pushed up level on points with Chelsea and only five behind Spurs in fifth place. Whilst Alan Pardew may be playing down their chances of getting fourth spot, I am sure he will be telling the players to go out and enjoy themselves as underdogs. Last weekend they absolutely blew WBA away in the first 30 minutes and Hatem Ben Arfa was brilliant down the wing. The Frenchman was always seen as a talent, but only now has he really begun to show it. An out of sorts Jose Enrique will not relish facing him on his return to St James Park.
Liverpool are going from bad to plain laughable at the moment. The fact that a significant proportion of the fanbase remain behind Kenny Dalglish does nothing to dis-spell the theory that they are the strangest, most cultish group around. The man did improve performance slightly upon his original appointment, but it looks more and more like it was merely a reaction to a new broom, than any sort of ability on his part. The easiest stick to beat him with is the signings of Carroll, Henderson, Downing and Adam at well over £100million pounds for the lot. But he deserves every whack he gets for it. They are all no more than average and have added nothing much to a side that is crying out for creativity (to help Suarez) or just some sort of pace. The manager and many fans will point to the Carling Cup, and silverware is nice, but if it is at the expense of the team regressing then I doubt many will envy them.
Back Newcastle at 3.12 with BetVictor.
Sporting Gijon v Real Zaragoza, Saturday 1700
My only tip from Spain this week sees two struggling sides meet in Gijon. Both have steadily slipped backwards in the past few seasons, mostly due to money worries. Gijon have been surviving because they are tight at the back and make it very difficult for any side to play against them. They are not afraid to play a bit dirty if necessary and their home form has normally been excellent considering their expenditure. Considering they are second bottom at present their home form of won four, drawn four and lost six is not actually horrendous, but sadly losing ten from fifteen away has them in the position they currently occupy.
Zaragoza have been bottom for the vast majority of the season, but have recently shown signs of life. They have won back to back matches over giants Atletico and Valencia to pull level on points with two other sides and give them hopes of survival. They are scoring goals again and they are treating every match as if they have nothing to lose. This approach is giving me faith that two poor sides may well serve up a thriller.
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.1 with Ladbrokes.
Roma v Novara, Sunday 1130
Roma are in a bit of a transition under their American owners at present, trying to see if they can change the approach teams take to Serie A. They started this revamp by taking Luis Enrique from in charge of Barcelona's B side to take the reigns and try and replicate some of the more technical elements of Barcelona's play. The theory being presumably that Barcelona would beat all the sides in Serie A easily so why not aim to copy them? This hasn't had immediate effects, but recently there have been signs that something is coming together. The form of ex-Chelsea player Fabio Borini has been a highlight, with the youngster grabbing five goals in his last six matches. This has even led to talk of a late call-up to the Italy squad for Polkraine in the summer. He will be looking forward to facing a leaky Novara side.
Novara have probably not much enjoyed their season in the big league aside of doing the double over Inter Milan. They are not down yet, but as they are eight points from safety and only have nine matches remaining it is fairly safe to assume they'll be back in Serie B next season. They have looked a bit better lately, but against sides that have been experiencing some slumps in effort themselves after long seasons. Roma have had very little to play other than the league for a while now and I would expect them to dish out a good win here.
Back Fabio Borini To Score Anytime at 2.0 with Paddy Power.
Hertha Berlin v Wolfsburg, Saturday 1730
Hertha Berlin finally looked like they might have enough to escape in last weeks impressive away victory over Mainz. Otto Rehagel was appointed a few weeks ago in a last throw of the dice move by the club to try and escape the drop. For the first few matches it looked like a bad move, and in the thrashing by Bayern two weeks ago they looked doomed. However comma King Otto has now moved back to the tactics they employed under Markus Babbel to win promotion and they got a good result. If they can keep that fighting spirit then they definitely have every chance of sticking around in the top league as the players are more than able.
Wolfsburg have only two away wins to their name all season, one on the opening weekend and one a couple of weeks ago to down one of my tips! They are comfortbaly mid-table and probably too far off the top sides to move for European football so I would imagine effort will slow somewhat in the coming weeks. The problem they have had is a very leaky defence, they have conceded an astonishing thirty two in thirteen away matches so far this season. Hertha Berlin have another good chance to move up the table.
Back Hertha Berlin at 2.5 with BetVictor.
Hannover 96 v Borussia Monchengladbach, Sunday 1430
Two sides meet on Sunday who have built their teams around solidity and hard work. Hannover have also progressed as far as the Quarter Finals of the Europa League and with them sitting in upper mid-table, I would expect them to perhaps concentrate on that competition slightly more. They don't score that many, and with ex-Man Utd 'star' Mame Diouf up front it is perhaps no surprise, but they keep it tight and nick games by wearing teams out and punishing their tiredness. Unfortunately Gladbach should be able to match them for graft.
I can't really add much about Gladbach that I haven't already this season as they have been such a regular feature of the column. They are similar to Hannover in approach in the main, but are elevated by the presence of Marco Reus and the pace and flair he brings. They press teams high up the pitch and rely on stamina to keep this pressure up and force mistakes out of their opponents. Where Hannover rely more on power though, Gladbach have Reus to open sides up and scare defenders into mistakes. They've been off the boil of late and lost last weekend, but I think they could get a win if Hannover feel the effects of their Thursday exploits.
Back Borussia Monchengladbach Draw No Bet at 1.9 with William Hill.
Kayserispor v Eskisehirspor, Saturday 1330
At present we are only a couple of matches away from the Super Lig breaking up into it's play-offs for the first time ever. Whilst the Big Four have settled into the spots for the Champions League and Title play-offs there is still plenty of sides in with a shout for the Europa League play-offs. Kayserispor are one of those sides. They are six points off with two to play so mathematically there is still a chance. With Eskisehir holding the bottom place of the play-offs currently they could get closer by beating them this week. They have a home record of won eight, drawn three and lost five, which is very good, but there is no particular give away as to which side will turn up most weeks. They are capable of a 3-3 draw with Trabzon, but lost at home to gencler the week before.
Eskisehir are the masters of shutting up shop and closing games out. They look for one nil wins where possible and reduce the risk of getting beaten by getting five or six behind the ball at all times. They are without a win in three now, but narrowly lost last weekend 1-0 and drew 1-1 the week before when away. I think they will be trying even harder not to lose in the hope of clinging on to their play-off spot and see this as possibly an awful match to watch.
Back the Draw at 3.2 with Stan James.
Trabzonspor v Fenerbahce, Sunday 1700
Another big match this weekend sees Fener travelling to Trabzon. Both sides are assured of their spots in the play-offs for the Super Lig now, but with points still important they should both be going for victory, or at least not to lose. Trabzon's form has picked up since they left European competition and their smallish squad was more able to cope with the workload. The striker Yilmaz has again looked excellent all season long and has been banging the goals in that keep them well up the table. They are unbeaten in four and took the lead away at Gala last weekend only to be pegged back by a last minute equaliser. They should be confident of gaining a victory and catching Fener up.
Fener made some big signings in January in an attempt to claw back the lead that gala had built in the first half of the season, but this has not happened. The likes of Moussa Sow have impressed, but the team has not gelled together enough to get into a run of good form. They now trail by seven points and if they lose this they will have a real job to hold on to the league title. They haven't lost in six, but the only side in form they faced was Gala and they were lucky to hold on to a 2-2 draw by the finish. I think that Trabzon have a brilliant chance here.
Back Trabzonspor at 2.37 with Stan James.
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