Steady improvements...

Another weekend and sadly again no massive gains were forthcoming. I stand by the fact that Hannover 96 represented excellent value at 2.4, they kicked off at a general 2.1, but an early sending off hurt that one. As I have mentioned before, betting is not an exact science, it's gambling after all! The key is that you never bet more than you can afford to lose. It is also dictated by results. If you take a scan back over the almost 3 years of tips on my blog you will see gains have been made and I certainly still think I have an eye for a value bet. Over time these will come good. That Hannover 96 lost does not make it a bad bet.

Music from Lucero with Last Night In Town.

Week 5

Liverpool v West Brom - Lose 2 points.
Manchester United v Stoke City - Win 1.94 points.
Rayo Vallecano v Real Valladolid - Lose 2 points.
Juventus v Genoa - VOID
Hannover 96 v Hoffenheim - Lose 2 points.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Eintracht Frankfurt - Win 2.3 points.
Lorient v Sochaux - Lose 2 points.
St Etienne v Paris SG - Lose 2 points.

Weekly Totals - Lose 5.74 points.
Running Total - Lose 17.88 points.

Arsenal v Liverpool, Saturday 1730

Before the season started not many people would have predicted how big this game would have been at the top of the table. However comma both sides have started the season very well and go into this match looking to prove points about how improved they are. Arsenal's very late signing of Mesut Ozil has seemingly given them a huge boost, as well as a player I consider to be one of the world's very best. The 'defensive issues' often commented on are nowhere near as bad as they've been made out, even last season Arsenal had one of the best defensive records in the Premier League. There is a lot of experience in the first choice back four of Bacary Sagna, Per Mertesacker, Laurent Koscielny and Kieran Gibbs. With Wojciech Szczesny also looking like he has added a maturity to his goalkeeping ability it's a great backbone. The midfield looks a lot stronger for the return of Mathieu Flamini too. The Frenchman isn't a Patrick Vieira type, but he is relentless and also adds a commanding voice where one has often lacked. With the calm passing and attacking link-up of Mikel Arteta and Aaron Ramsey alongside it's an excellent midfield. A frontline of Mesut Ozil, Santi Cazorla and Olivier Giroud looks perfectly rounded too.
Liverpool have come on in leaps and bounds under Brendan Rodgers, despite initial doubts about whether he had the necessary experience to cope. He has been fortunate to inherit a striker of the class of Luis Suarez, but has added to the side well, although they are far from complete to my eyes. Simon Mignolet is a decent goalkeeper, but no more for me. The back four can also look pondersome and lacks genuine pace, although Mamadou Sakho should help with that once fully settled. Rodgers hasn't really played a good side since re-integrating Suarez though and this will see the side fully tested. The current system is set-up to get the best out of Suarez and Daniel Sturridge, but gives away an awful lot of chances at the back. I think Arsenal are well placed to take advantage of those gaps.

Back Arsenal at 2.33 with PinnacleBet. 2 points.

Everton v Tottenham, Sunday 1330

Two sides who changed an awful lot over the summer meet at Goodison Park on Sunday. Everton moved to replace David Moyes with Roberto Martinez as manager. I was one of a few who were dubious about how well Martinez would do given that he had just taken Wigan down and had never got the defence right at all in his time there. So far he has injected a new liveliness to Everton's play that they had lacked under Moyes and is doing very well, their best start in many years. His signings of James McCarthy permanently and Gareth Barry and Romelu Lukaku on loan have been brilliant. McCarthy adds workrate and bite to midfield, Barry is a steady influence and seems to have a new lease of life and Lukaku is again making a mockery of Chelsea's continued willingness to let him out on loan. They are currently unbeaten at home with three wins and a draw. With Kevin Mirallas also looking a more regularly impressive performer Everton look one of the best sides at present. I'm not sold on Tottenham's defence and with Lukaku netting five in his last five I think Everton have a great opportunity here.
Tottenham are not quite firing on all cylinders under Andre Villas Boas yet. I think they did incredibly well to get so much money for Gareth Bale and have reinvested wisely, but the team has yet to gel. This is hardly surprising, but there are murmurs of discontent already. This atmosphere doesn't help and adds pressure to the players. I see a huge problem as the striker. Tottenham have plenty of options in midfield and behind the striker, but Roberto Soldado doesn't look the right man to be at the peak to me. He is not big enough to hold the ball up and doesn't contribute defensively, he's a poacher more than anything. There's nothing wrong with that in the right system, but I think Tottenham would be much better served by a player like Romelu Lukaku and his attributes. Tottenham's lack of goals and 120 minutes of Carling Cup action last night make Everton's price look appealing to me.

Back Everton Draw No Bet at 1.85 with MarathonBet. 2 points.

Real Betis v Levante, Thursday 2100

This one really does stand out to me at the odds. Real Betis returned to La Liga last season and ended up surviving fairly easily, almost qualifying for European football. In Spain though this can easily happen with the difference between sides other than the big three all much of a muchness. A good or bad run for five or so matches can see a side above the relegation spots suddenly look like a top seven side. This season Betis find themselves second bottom with only two wins in ten. They have both come at home, where they go won two, drawn one and lost two with six scored and five conceded. They're not winning by much and that could easily go against them.
Levante are again confounding expectations and looking towards European qualification. They are no different to a lot of sides in Spain in that they have an exceptionally limited budget, but they have a track record of good investment. It again looks like they have got a side that's tough to beat and in fact have a superior away record so far, they have actually only lost twice all season so far and that was to Real Madrid and Barcelona. Away from home they have won three, drawn one and lost one with six scored and ten conceded. Take away the opening day defeat away at Barcelona and that's three wins and a draw with six scored and just three conceded. They look a great option here.

Lay Real Betis at 2.04 on Betfair. 2 points.

Almeria v Real Valladolid, Saturday 1700

Almeria look like this seasons certainties for relegation. They've never exactly set the division alight, but have started horrendously and look well short of the quality required to get up the table.So far they have only won one match, although that was an impressive 2-1 win away at Valencia last weekend. They've actually not struggled for goals either, but are conceding at an alarming rate and have yet to keep a clean sheet. At home they have drawn two and lost three for an aggregate of minus four goals.
Real Valladolid showed up at Rayo Vallecano last Friday night and ruined our first bet of the weekend. Rayo are another side who leave gaps all other the pitch as they like to attack and Valladolid picked them off ruthlessly. Once Rayo were chasing the game they hit them for a 3-0 away win. I don't see this Almeria side as particularly different so they look a short price to me for a win.

Lay Almeria at 2.2 on Betfair. 2 points.

AC Milan v Fiorentina, Saturday 1945

AC Milan are again looking very unlikely to make any sort of title challenge under Massimo Allegri. That's not to say the Italian is doing a bad job as manager, it's just an effect of the cost cutting that has gone on in the past two seasons. It now also looks like Mario Balotelli has possibly got the hump following a sending off and early removal in quick succession and his agents comments this week talking up a January move. Whilst he's certainly a loose cannon and possibly trouble, he's the best player AC have for me. The side look much better when he plays well, particularly with Stephen El Sharaawy currently out of form and the starting eleven. This can be seen in one win in the last four matches without Balotelli playing well and I can't have them at such short odds against a good side.
Fiorentina have become a very entertaining side under the management of Vincenzo Montella. They are up to fifth at this early stage and look the best side besides Roma, Napoli and Juventus to me. They have only lost twice so far and just once away, where they currently have an enviable record of won three, drawn one and lost one. This has been achieved whilst scoring ten and conceding five to show that Montella lets his side play their football and go for goals even on the road. AC Milan are in the doldrums and I expect Fiorentina to make things very tough for them.

Lay AC Milan at 2.14 on Betfair. 2 points.

Borussia Dortmund v Stuttgart, Friday 1930

Ok, ok, it's not a particularly inventive bet to start off in Germany. However, it cannot be ignored how well both Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich are currently playing. In this case it's Dortmund I am looking at. Jurgen Klopp may have lost one of Europe's hottest atatcking midfielders to Munich this summer in Mario Gotze, but to show his club's current brilliance they seem to have improved the side when reinvesting the 37 million Euro's they received. Plenty of clubs were looking at Henrikh Mkhitaryan of Shakhtar Donetsk, but Dortmund bought him in and have been rewarded with his continued goalscoring and a work-rate which fits right into the Dortmund style of play. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang was a good striker for St Etienne in France, but Klopp saw potential for the lightning quick forward and he has added a great new element to the side when coming off the bench or starting when Robert Lewandowski needs a rest. They won the derby away at Schalke in fine style last weekend and look great at present.
Stuttgart have started a little better than in recent seasons and are currently in eight position in the Bundesliga, which is roughly where I would have them in the overall standings. They have been slightly better away from home with a record of won two, drawn one and lost two so far with eleven scored and eight conceded. They so seem happier to go for a win when away, but this will play right into Dortmund's hands if they continue with that approach. I see an easy win for Dortmund so will play the handicaps.

Back Borussia Dortmund -1.0 Asian Handicap at 1.38 with MarathonBet. 2 points.

Hertha Berlin v Schalke 04, Saturday 1430

Hertha Berlin returned to the Bundesliga this season and have looked like a very good side so far. Last weekend they gave Bayern Munich probably their toughest game so far when taking a 1-0 lead into half time and only narrowly losing 3-2 in the end. At home so far they have an excellent record of won four and lost just once with eleven scored and three conceded. This shows how good their defence has been and with over two goals a game scored too that's a fantastic record. The forward line of Ronny, Adrian Ramos and the two Tunisians Anis Ben-Hatira and Sami Allagui have scored fourteen between them so far to show how well they operate as a unit.
Schalke 04 have been very up and down so far and seem to be struggling to keep everyone at peak playing powers every week. Injuries have so far robbed them of Klaas Jan Huntelaar and Jefferson Farfan and the experience they also bring. In certain matches the youthful exuberance and skills of Julian Draxler or the sheer force of Kevin Prince-Boateng have pulled them through, but both of these players look tired already and in need of a proper rest. They were not good at all last weekend in the derby and have an identical record of won two, drawn one and lost two both home and away so far. I think they may well get worse before they get better and Hertha look an attractive price here.

Back Hertha Berlin at 2.5 with SpreadEX. 2 points.

OGC Nice v Bordeaux, Sunday 1300

Last weekends first look at France was not a success, but I am going to persist with it for now to see if there's much value to be had in a league not many bet on in the UK. There is a lack of goals which means that draws are at a lower price than in many countries, but equally this should lead to larger odds on either side to win. Therefore if you can find a good bet you may well be getting a slight advantage. OGC Nice have come on the last couple of seasons to be one of the better sides in Ligue Un when discounting the monied Paris SG and Monaco. Home form is particularly important to them and so far they go played five, won four and drawn one with no losses and ten scored with just three conceded. This average of two goals for them per game is the reason I am interested in the bet.
Bordeaux are a long time past their title victory under current Paris SG manager Laurent Blanc. Most of the players that excelled that season were sold on and Bordeaux have returned to being a mid-table side with a small budget. They are currently in fourteenth position in the table and have an atrocious record on their travels. They haven't won away in five matches, having drawn four and lost once. They have scored seven and conceded eight in those matches. It could be argued that they are not losing, and that is something, but I think they're tight odds when Nice have such a good home record.

Back OGC Nice at 2.55 with BetVictor. 2 points.

Bursaspor v Fenerbahce, Saturday 1700

Bursaspor have again had trouble scoring in the Super Lig so far. Turkey's league is generally a low scoring affair outside of the Istanbul three anyway, but Bursaspor stand out as particularly poor considering their resources and relatively recent title victory. In their first nine matches they have only scored eight times to show just how much they are struggling. At home they have only won once, drawing three and also losing once. Three goals in those four matches is just not good enough at all. They are not conceding many so far, but when they did meet an in-form Besiktas they conceded three goals. It should be borne in mind that they are on a three match winning streak without conceding, but these were all against far lesser opponents than Fenerbahce.
Fenerbahce look like the side to beat at this stage of the Super Lig. Besiktas started well, but have already fallen away slightly to leave Fener four points clear at the top at present. They have a well balanced side, having learnt from the past mistakes of bringing in big names and loads of attackers without any particular idea of how to fit them into a functioning team. The only match they have lost so far was on the opening day to Konyaspor away and it's also the only away match they haven't won so far. Since then they have won three away matches, scoring six and conceding three. Bursaspor should provide a stiffer challenge, but I don't see them getting a win.

Lay Bursaspor at 3.1 on Betfair. 2 points.