Small gains...

After two weeks starting off with losses we hit the black last weekend, with Saturday a particularly good day. I've always pointed out the intention of this blog is not for people who want a 15 fold odds-on accumulator each weekend, it's for long-term gains. In my opinion, barring an enormous slice of luck, these will only come with extensive research and planning. So revel in the huge profits when they come, but remember that there could be a complete reverse another week. And that's this weeks lecture over with!

A couple of early thoughts this week are concerning Manchester United and Turkish football betting. It is beginning to be an idea in my mind that United may well start to look like Liverpool in the odds this season, or at least for a while. I think there is a decent chance that they will continue to be priced as one of the very best sides in the league, when close examination does not bear this out at all for me. I see an excellent goalkeeper, a disorganised and ageing defence, a mid-table at best midfield and a good selection of attackers being ignored or mis-used in some cases. So I will have a close eye on looking to lay them if this is borne out in the setting of the odds. My thought on Turkish football is that I may well look to move on to another league as a regular feature. I no longer spend as much time researching the Super Lig and would possibly have more chance moving on to the French Ligue Un or the Dutch Eredivisie, or even lower league English football. I'll stick with the Super Lig this week, but any feedback on that would be appreciated.

Music from the Lawrence Arms with 100 Resolutions.

Week 3

Tottenham v Chelsea - Win 1.05 points.
Hull City v West Ham - Win 1.44 points.
Osasuna v Levante - Win 1.71 points.
Cagliari v Inter Milan - Lose 2 points.
Eintracht Frankfurt v Hambury - Win 2.5 points.
Borussia Dortmund v Freiburg - Win 0.66 points.
Elazigspor v Sivasspor - Lose 2 points.
Kasimpasa v Eskisehirspor - Lose 2 points.

Totals - Win 1.36 points.


Running Total - Lose 7.08 points.

Cardiff City v Newcastle United, Saturday 1500

There's a very decent chance I'll follow Cardiff City a bit this season as I'm impressed with them more than the odds makers by the looks of things. I have mentioned before how I believe defence very often is the area I believe the odds should move around. This is even more the case when you are looking at laying sides or playing the handicap markets as sides may well get draws or even only lose narrowly when the match odds reflect a huge advantage for the opposition. That is not the case here though. Malky Mackay's side spent the big money this summer on Steven Caulker and Gary Medel to shore up the defence and midfield and that looks very wise right now. There is not the same level of talent in the forwards, but there's enough there to try and nick goals that can win matches from the solid defensive base they have. I think this will particularly be the case in home matches like this.
Newcastle United are still being priced above their abilities all too often for me. There is definitely some good players at the club, Hatem Ben Arfa and Yohan Cabaye being the obvious examples, but I'm unconvinced by Alan Pardew. On top of that the club itself seems unsure of what direction it is going in from the lack of leadership from Mike Ashley and the appointment of Joe Kinnear as Director of Football. At present it looks like Yohan Cabaye will make it to the starting line-up and that changes things a bit as the side improves drastically for his presence, but not enough in my opinion. Not to justify Cardiff being so long in places.

Back Cardiff City at 2.43 with PinnacleBet. 2.5 points.

Hull City v Aston Villa, Saturday 1500

This might be a theme for a few weeks yet! I actually think Hull City, similarly to Cardiff City, are being slightly underestimated by the odds setters. In this case it isn't so much for their own strengths, defence again really, but in comparison to the clubs in the bottom half of the Premier League. Whilst they have no stand out players, aside from the excellent so far Tom Huddlestone, they don't look any worse to me than someone like Norwich or Fulham or even Aston Villa. My point really is that only Crystal Palace look miles off the necessary quality and Hull could well pick up some good points, especially if they can solve their goals problem. This will possibly not be until January though as currently it's only really Danny Graham for them and he's hugely out of form.
Aston Villa are an incredibly strange side. With Christian Benteke playing they are sometimes worth considering at one of the big boys as if they can stay organised he can cause anyone problems. However comma he is currently out injured anyway. You can point out last weekends win against Manchester City in his absence, but that looks a complete aberration to me and is best ignored. I'm still unsure whether Paul Lambert is being clever with bringing in young, hungry players or whether it's a convenient excuse when results go against them. I will continue to give him the benefit of the doubt for now because of his previously impressive record in management and because it is the norm in Germany where they are currently producing some excellent sides. This week though they look a little short. I'd back Hull, but they don't have enough goal threat for me so I'll be a layer.

Lay Aston Villa at 3.2 on Betfair. 2 points.

Levante v Real Madrid, Saturday 1900

I've actually made similar bets to this in the previous two seasons for the same game and been very close to getting it spot on. I've previously layed Real Madrid in the Match Odds market.
Levante have started the season decently in La Liga and got another respectable result last weekend with a 1-0 win away at Osasuna. They again look a side who will be difficult to beat and that is shown in their current record of only having lost once in seven matches this season. They have drawn all three home matches so far and have only conceded once in those matches. They seem to always punch above their perceived weight and are doing so again.
Real Madrid look very much like a side Jose Mourinho has left at present. His methods are not to be dismissed when in charge of a side as he gets great results and certainly improved Real too for the most part of his reign. But, he does seem to always leave sides looking tired and squabbling and this is no exception. The hierachy at Real have not helped by selling their main provider, Mesut Ozil, failing to sign a striker to help Karim Benzema and signing a player for a world record fee they did not require, Gareth Bale. Add this to the problems Mourinho left and Carlo Ancelotti suddenly looks like he has a huge job on his hands. They are no bad side, but the home loss to Atletico Madrid last weekend again showed their are big issues around.

Back Levante +2 Regular Handicap at 1.9 with Stan James. 2 points.

Inter Milan v Roma, Saturday 1945

The two sides that have surprised most people so far this season in Serie A are meeting at the San Siro on Saturday night. Both under new managers and they have improved immeasurably already it seems. In the case of Inter Milan it is former Napoli manager Walter Mazzari who has been given the chance to try and improve the side that has steadily declined since Jose Mourinho and the treble. There is probably not a better manager in Serie A for the job for me and he already looks to have sorted out a previously porous defence straight away. Bringing in Hugo Campagnaro was a master-stroke as the experienced defender has played under Mazzari loads and helps every other player adjust to the new methods employed. Whilst Ricky Alvarez had a poor match last weekend he has been rejuvenated as an attacker also and his replacement on Sunday, Zdravko Kuzmanovic, looks like he's coming along well again too.
Roma currently sit top of Serie A having won all six matches so far under Rudi Garcia. The man that guided Lille to Ligue Un titles and saw the development of Eden Hazard and Gervinho has seemingly unlocked the latter again. He is a believer in the high intensity pressing game favoured by the likes of Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp and it is getting results. This can clearly be seen in the fact they have often not been ahead at half time, but the way they tire the opposition out results in winning the matches anyway. The only criticism so far is that they have yet to play a 'good' side, Inter Milan provide this test. I think they may well come unstuck finally here thanks to Mazzari's great experience in Italy paying off.

Lay Roma at 3.15 on Betfair. 2 points.

Udinese v Cagliari, Sunday 1400

I was a big follower of Udinese around two years ago for about six months as I thought they were being greatly under-appreciated. They were giving Juventus something to think about at the top of Serie A thanks to an excellent scouting system that kept finding new players for the first team. The likes of Alexis Sanchez (Bracelona), Gokhlan Inler (Napoli) and Cristian Zapata (AC Milan) are all examples of the players Udinese have found and sold on at huge profits. This has now seen the team reduced to upper mid-table, but they should still harbour hopes of Europa League qualification. Antonio Di Natale is probably in his last season now, but he is still capable of turning a match with a goal when fit. In this sense no European football is keeping him largely available for league matches at least. They have only lost away this season so far and have won two from three, with a draw, at home whilst scoring five and only conceding two.
Cagliari are also unbeaten at home, but have also failed to win away from home with two draws and a loss so far. They have conceded in every match so far too, which worries me slightly with my previously mentioned emphasis on defending. Cagliari, have in fact only won one match all season and I can understand the odds being as they are here. I don't think there's any huge value in this price, but I think it's still backable.

Back Udinese at 1.97 with PinnacleBet. 2 points.

Hannover 96 v Hertha Bsc, Friday 1930

This is not to be missed in my opinion. Occasionally the foreign leagues will throw up prices that look excellent to those who follow them and this looks the case here. Hannover 96 are one of my favourite teams to side with due to their consistency and under-appreciation by bookmakers. They always finish near the top of the Bundesliga and invest very wisely to add players who fit a system that works very well for them. The lack of stars also aids them in holding on to their players with many flying under the radar or being presumed to only fit the system at Hannover. They have started the season well again, particularly at home where they have won four from four with a goals for record of ten compared to only three conceded. They have lost all three away matches to temper things a bit, but you can't ignore quality over time and that home record.
Hertha Bsc were promoted over the summer and have not looked out of place so far. In fact, they currently sit in fifth, one place behind Hannover 96. This is also on the back of an impressive home record of played four, won three and drawn one. But, they also seem to struggle away from home where they are yet to win with a record of played three, drawn two and lost one. It could also, rightly, be argues they've had a relatively easy start so far and this should be their first real test. I think they'll come up short against a side with as much experience in the top division as Hannover and one going so well so far.

Back Hannover 96 at 2.4 with BetVictor. 3 points.

Borussia Monchengladbach v Borussia Dortmund, Saturday 1430

This season Borussia Monchengladbach have started very well and sit near the top of the table at this early stage. They have been excellent at home and currently have three wins from three with a whopping eleven goals scored and only two conceded. This would suggest that some of the issues they have experienced since losing Marco Reus to the visitors have been solved. At various times they have struggled to replac his constant goal threat with a more attacking approach, but this at times left them very vulnerable at the back. This was previously a strength and it looks like they may have sorted this out a bit. To temper this optimism a little bit, they have yet to win away from home. They have a record of played four, drawn one and lost three on the road with only three scored and six conceded. From what I have seen the defence isn't bad away either really, but they haven't committed enough men to attacking to cause trouble.
Borussia Dortmund have started fantastically in their attempts to get back their Bundesliga title from Bayern Munich. So far they have won six and drawn one with a  league high of twenty one scored and only five conceded. They've been known the odd slip though. I still think the odds are generous to back them here
though.

Back Borussia Dortmund at 1.73 with PinnacleBet. 2 points.

Karabukspor v Bursaspor, Friday 1800

Sorry this one is so late in being given!
Karabukspor were one of the best of the rest last season in the Super Lig thanks to a counter attacking approach. This actually saw them beat Fenerbahce in Istanbul such was it's success. They did lose start striker Lamine Diarra, but have started well so far. They have a good home record of played three, won two and drawn one. This is with no goals conceded either. Their away form is far more patchy, but this is not unusual at all in the Super Lig and I think they're priced very generously for this.
Bursaspor have again started a season poorly and sit two places off the bottom at present. They actually often seem to gain points all over the place rather than the league norm of relying on home form to gain them points. This can see them in small runs of either horrendous form, or great play depending on the mood seemingly. They are present ly in a poor run and I think they are there to be opposed.

Back Karabukspor at 2.92 on Betfair. 2 points.