Sorry about the pause in blogs, but I have been in the midst of seeking gainful employment so have been a bit distracted. The last blog up was also the last weekend of domestic action after a break to finish the World Cup 2014 qualifying the world over. Sadly for us I again posted a loss. I would say I have been slightly behind in the changing of the guard in a few countries so far and am now hoping that I have got properly on top of where I believe teams are in the grand scheme of things now. This should lead to a more profitable blog, although I will still say that nearly all my tips have been at better odds than kick off and we have seen an absurd number of goals in the last five minutes of matches costing winning bets!
Music from Ben Nichols with Toadvine, yet more alt-country!
Week 4
Cardiff City v Newcastle United - Lose 2 points.
Hull City v Aston Villa - Win 1.2 points.
Levante v Real Madrid - Win 1.8 points.
Inter Milan v Roma - Lose 2 points.
Udinese v Cagliari - Win 1.94 points.
Hannover 96 v Hertha Berlin - Lose 3 points.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Borussia Dortmund - Lose 2 points.
Karabukspor v Bursaspor- Lose 2 points.
Weekly Totals - Lose 5.06 points.
Running Total - Lose 12.14 points.
Liverpool v West Brom, Saturday 1500
Lets's return to an old theme for the first up. Liverpool seemed to be set at more realistic prices at the end of last season, but it seems a decent start to this season has seen silly ones returning. I personally think Liverpool are building a decent side, albeit slowly. Their forward pairing of Luis Suarez and Daniel Sturridge backed up by Phillipe Coutinho is very strong and their defence looks much more solid. I am not at all sold on new signing Simon Mignolet in goal as yet, nor am I particularly impressed by the midfield in the main. They are narrowly winning games at the moment, and that's no bad thing, but they don't look miles ahead of anyone to me, which is what the odds here would suggest. Pricing them up at a general 1.4 should really indicate they're going to have a pretty easy time of it against West Brom. Something to bear in mind is that Liverpool have tired in every match so far and have not 'won' a second half all season. If they can be frustrated then they can be stopped.
West Brom have again shown themselves to be a very decent Premier League side under the management of Steve Clarke. They have also made an excellent signing in Morgan Amalfitano and also brought the exciting striker Saido Berahino into the squad. Both these players have excelled in attacking positions and somewhat eased the worry about missing last seasons loan star Romelu Lukaku up front. Clarke was always an excellent number two and seemed to improve the tactical and organisational sides of clubs he worked for and seems to be carrying that on at WBA. I would actually fancy him, of most Premier League managers, to set up a side to contain Liverpool. Due to the odds being so low on Liverpool though I am going to give us a handicap to help.
Back West Brom +1.0 Asian Handicap at 2.4 with BetInternet. 2 points.
Manchester United v Stoke City, Saturday 1500
As I mentioned in my last blog, I think Manchester United are currently suffering from the same short prices Liverpool have previously. They are clearly still a good side under David Moyes, with some very talented players, but they are not as good as the odds would suggest. The main problem I see with the odds is that Moyes is an inherently cautious manager at present and this is holding the side back from pushing on to get a comfortable lead in matches. Their last match was a perfect example of this with Southampton not being killed off and snatching a late equaliser at Old Trafford. A side with the likes of Wayne Rooney, Robin Van Persie, Shinji Kagawa and also Nani, Antonio Valencia, Javier Hernandez and more should not be struggling to score goals, but they are. You can then throw in the loyalty Moyes is showing to an under-performing centre back partnership between Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic. He has re-introduced Jonny Evans recently, but I'd expect Ferdinand and Vidic to again be preferred for this match.
Stoke City started the season well and manager Mark Hughes was being lauded for the quick time he had seemingly instilled a more attractive style of play into his side. However comma since then the performances have got poorer and the team have reverted back to the comfort of a more 'industrial' style. This is to be expected after so many years playing that way, but Hughes is facing some criticism for it. The good point from the worse results of late is that due to the teams defensive schooling they are not getting beaten by much. With that in mind, and United's short price, I think there is again room to play the handicap markets here.
Lay Manchester United -1 Handicap at 2.03 on Betfair. 2 points.
Rayo Vallecano v Real Valladolid, Friday 2000
Rayo Vallecano are a side that make no apologies for thinking only of entertaining their fans and attempting to score more than the opposition. The problem with this is that when the forward players are not on top of their game the side can be embarrassed defensively. This was certainly the case for the earliest part of this season when they failed to get a point for six matches after starting the season with a win against newly promoted Elche. However, since then they have notched two 1-0 wins, one at home and one away, to move back up the table. This new resoluteness in defence bodes well as they are still not firing on all cylinders and makes me believe they are a side on the up at present.
Real Valladolid are one of those sides who seem to perenially be in the middle of the table. This is something they will be perfectly happy with at present with the lack of money around for all outside Barcelona, Real and Atletico Madrid in La Liga. A couple of good signings can push a side like them for Europe, although that doesn't look likely to happen this year. Valladolid have not won an away match either this season, with two draws and two losses so far. They have also only scored three and conceded seven so far in those matches and I really don't like their chances in this one.
Back Rayo Vallecano at 2.2 with William Hill. 2 points.
Juventus v Genoa, Sunday 1400
Juventus' manager Antonio Conte has done an exceptional job in restoring the Turin side to the top of Serie A and re-establishing them in Europe too. They have by far the best squad in Italy and can consider themselves to be one of the better sides in all of Europe. This was all certainly true last season. Conte himself warned of the third season being the most difficult of all in terms of maintaining performances and that looks to be true so far. A number of the players who have served him so well look to be getting a little complacent and Giorgio Chiellini and Ginaluigi Buffon both seem to be creaking for the first time. The signings of Carlos Tevez and Fernando Llorente in attack haven't been a roaring success. Tevez has fitted in fine, but Llorente is rumoured to be finding the lifestyle switch impossible already. They do sit third in Serie A at present having won all three of their home matches with an aggregate score of nine to four, but have shown signs of weakness in most matches.
Genoa appointed Gian Piero Gasperini as manager this season and have looked a better side for it. After being given the reins at Inter Milan and then not backed to succeed his reputation was hugely damaged, but he is doing fine restoring this now. They do sit fifteenth in the table, but have tightened up considerably the last two matches to draw 1-1 with Catania away and beat Chievo 2-1 at home. I think they may well lose this one, but can't resisit again playing the handicaps on such a short priced home win.
Back Genoa +2.0 Asian Handicap at 1.8 with BetInternet. 2 points.
Hannover 96 v Hoffenheim, Saturday 1430
Now, I've been let down a couple of times more than usual in Germany so far, but I still think this will turn around and I'm making the correct calls. Hannover are a side I will always look out for as long as they keep the same direction as they are currently following. They never seem far away from the top end of the table, but fail to gain the reputation the likes of Werder Bremen or Wolfsburg have from title wins a few years gone now. They are similar to someone like West Brom under Steve Clarke I think, albeit with more about them in attack. They have so far played five home matches, winning four and drawing the other for an aggregate of eleven goals for and only four against. They're a good side worth following.
Hoffenheim blazed through the leagues in Germany to the Bundesliga followed by a blaze of publicity for doing so. Once the first half of their first season was over though, they have found it much harder going. Culminating in almost being relegated back to the Bundesliga II last season. They seem a much more settled club now under the management of Marcus Gidsol, but are not any better than mid-table for me. They have only actually won two matches from nine so far with three draws from five propping them up at home. Away from home they have won one, drawn one and lost two with ten scored and eleven conceded. They're providing entertainment, but Hannover are good enough defensively to see them off.
Back Hannover 96 at 2.4 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Eintracht Frankfurt, Sunday 1630
A side I am also now back keeping an eye on is Borussia Monchengladbach in Germany. Two seasons back they were very profitable for followers with Marco Reus spearheading their attack and an incredibly well-drilled defence keeping most sides at bay. When Reus moved to Borussia Dortmund last summer they went through something of a transitional period trying to figure out a new way of winning games without relying on the mercurial forward. They seem to have finally settled on a system of attacking involving more players now, but have also kept enough defensively too. This is particularly prominent in a home record of played four, won four with thirteen scored and only three conceded. They even beat a Borussia Dortmund side who look back to their very best last time but one out. They then lost to Hertha Berlin away to show that all is not quite sorted yet away from home.
Eintracht Frankfurt did exceptionally well last season following promotion to find themselves in European competition on Thursday's. Unfortunately for them they look the epitome of a side where the extra competition is too much for the squad and are struggling to balance the league form alongside Europa League matches. This week sees them playing Sunday to allow for recovery, but this doesn't seem to have gone as hoped as yet. They have been better away from home so far, but are now travelling to one of the best around for home form and will struggle I think.
Back Borussia Monchengladbach at 2.15 with SportingBet. 2 points.
This week, as mentioned previously, I will be changing my other league of focus. I am going to have at look at France's Ligue Un this time. Turkey has become something of a chore and whilst I may return to it in the future, I am not motivated enough to trawl for news at this time. Sometimes that break can be good to get some focus back, let's hope this is the case here!
Lorient v Sochaux, Saturday 1900
My first pick in Ligue Un is a lay. Lorient are currently third bottom of the table in France and look set to struggle for the majority of the season. This is mainly due to a truly horrendous away record of having played six and lost six, scoring three and conceding twelve. They have won two of four at home so far, but have only scored six, whilst conceding the same number. Goals are not a problem just for Lorient, it's a French thing, but they are nevertheless really struggling.
Sochaux are second bottom and have managed a draw and four losses when away from home so far this season. They have scored four and conceded thirteen in those matches, which is obviously broadly similar to Lorient's away form. They have only won one match at home, but have drawn two, whilst scoring five and conceding seven. Lorient may well be the better side so far, but not by enough for me to justify being an odds on favourite in this match when goals are at such a premium.
Lay Lorient at 1.82 on Betfair. 2 points.
Saint Etienne v Paris SG, Sunday 2000
This may seem an obvious bet to start off in France, but I think there is some value in it. Saint Etienne are a regular side in the top half of the table in France and this season so far looks like that will be the case again. They have a good home record, as seems to be the case for most Ligue Un sides, in comparison to one their travels. The problem with the odds giving them credit for that is that, in my opinion, Paris SG are miles ahead and have not been treated as such here. St Etienne go won three, drawn one and lost one at home with nine scored and seven conceded. My main worry here is the seven conceded as that is very high in a league as low scoring as Ligue Un.
That in mind Paris SG's expensive attackers look to be coming into form now. Zlatan Ibrahimovic seems to have thrived in France and revelled in his role as the key man in the side, not to mention in attack. The addition of Edinson Cavani over the summer has looked a tad unnecessary at times, but they clicked on Wednesday night when dismantling Anderlecht. Laurent Blanc isn't my idea of a top level coach, but he almost can't fail in charge domestically with the amount of fine players he has at his disposal. I'm backing them to be in a rich vein of form and for their excellent away record of won four and drawn one to be won five and drawn one come late Sunday night.
Back Paris SG at 1.8 with BetVictor. 2 points.
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