So far thanks to a dud day on Monday we are down overall for the tournament so far. There's a few antepost bets still in play, I would say that only the Czech and Ukraine To Finish Bottom bets are dead in the water. Hopefully now everyone has played I will be able to make a better assessment of everyone's chances, although I still seemed to hugely underappreciate how poor Greece's defence was!
Italy v Croatia, Thursday 1700
This ought to be an interesting match up with both sides looking impressive in parts in their first matches. Italy went ahead and ended up drawing 1-1 with current European and World champions Spain. There had been pre-tournament fears that the new match-fixing charges being laid in Italy would affect the squad, but they seemed perfectly fine to me. Well, apart from Mario Balotelli anyway. The Man City striker certainly has ability, and his movement and hold-up play at times was exemplary, but his mental state was again called into question. He had a tantrum when a nothing incident failed to result in a penalty for him and then got booked for a late challenge before doing nothing at all with Italy's best chance before their goal. I would probably expect him to start most matches before making way for Antonio Di Natale. This would be presumably as Di Natale's finishing is a huge asset, but with his dodgy knees he is more effective as the game wears on in the heat and he can expose any defensive lapses. I actually think it's brilliant tactics if that is the thinking.
Croatia showed Ireland up by beating them 3-1 in their first encounter of the tournament. However, Ireland could consider themselves a tad unlucky as many decisions went against them, including what looked a certain penalty for Robbie Keane. Croatia's biggest positive for me is the fact manager Slaven Bilic is open to changing formation at any time, and his players all buy into this. He was expected to stick with Eduardo in attack as he has done for the past 3 years, but sprung something of a surprise by naming in-form Everton striker Nikola Jelavic against Ireland. I think this was the right decision as he offers a physical threat that Eduardo does not. In saying this was the right decision though Luka Modric looked as tired as he did at the end of the season for Spurs and might have been better had he been rested more in the build-up. He is fundamental to the way the Croats play and I don't see how he is going to regain his form without an extended rest. I think this could be a fairly stale match, but I have to fancy Italy to win.
Back Italy at 2.3 with BoyleSports.
Spain v Republic of Ireland, Thursday 1945
As mentioned both these sides probably did not get off to the starts they wanted. Spain looked like they will have problems breaking teams down as I thought they might before the tournament began. They decided to start the match without a recognised striker, Fabregas was often the most advanced player and he did net their goal. Fernando Torres was brought on and had two excellent chances which he again managed to make a mess of. His problems in front of goal have not gone away and personally I would not be bringing him on again when there are other options. All this being said they should have no problems against an Ireland side soundly beaten by Croatia. They should find gaps in a backline containing Richard Dunne and Sean St Ledger much easier than against Italy and I would expect Ireland to come away with nothing again.
As I have said I feel Ireland are going to struggle again in this match. That might sound obvious, and it probably is, but there are many saying if Ireland can refind their resoluteness from qualifying then they're not out yet. The problem is that they still have to play two better sides than they have faced, and the movement of Spain will be a nightmare for such a static side. Giovanni Trapattoni should be praised for getting his side to Euro 2012, but all the fears of how a side with Glenn Whelan and Keith Andrews in central midfield can compete look very real now. They were torn apart at times by Croatia when they started pinging it around, and Spain will surely have noticed this and will attempt the same. Ireland will probably avoid a thrashing, but I fail to see them getting anything from this.
Back Spain To Win To Nil at 1.9 with ToteSport.
Ukraine v France, Friday 1700
The joint hosts face the group favourites on Thursday having had mixed results in their first matches. France started with a 1-1 draw with England that exposed their limitations and made a mockery of predictions of them as outsiders in my opinion. I had read various articles from the French media noting that the refusal by Laurent Blanc to change from Adil Rami and Philippe Mexes in the centre would be the reason they don't win anything and I would have to go along with that. They look completely alien to each other at times, which is possibly the worst thing that can be said of a defensive partnership. Throw in Patrice Evra at left back and you have an accident constantly waiting to happen. The other worry was that Karim Benzema looked as listless as he did before Mourinho turned up at Real Madrid. To take advantage of the options they have in attack they will need a much improved performance from him if he is to be of use to his team. Laurent Blanc does have options like Hatem Ben Arfa and Olivier Giroud to bring in, and I think he may have to at some point as France did not impress me at all.
The Ukraine needed a blast from the past performance from striker Andrei Shevchenko to come back from 1-0 down to beat Sweden 2-1. They had a brilliant twenty minute spell in the second half that these goals came in where everything clicked for them. However comma the other seventy minutes showed how limited they probably are. The winger Yarmolenko looks a good prospect, and Tymoschuk is a calming influence as is Voronin, but the rest of the side look very average. Voronin and Shevchenko also looked absolutely shattered when they were removed and the whole team collapsed in their absence. Sweden were gifted numerous chances at the end and a better side would have punished Ukraine for this. They will again give away chances I would think and I can see France doing the same if Konoplyanka also starts providing pace from both wings.
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.5 with William Hill.
England v Sweden, Friday 1945
This match could well be a fairly even match up with both sides playing similar systems. It looks as though Hodgson has now decided that defence first is England's best hope going forward, and I would agree to an extent. They kept a good France attack at bay for most of the first match and scored from a set-piece to earn a draw. Early on we also saw that Ashley Young was again England's most potent attacking force with his pace causing problems and setting up a chance that James Milner might have scored. The problems came after they went ahead and seemed to revert to type by inviting France on to them for the rest of the match. Young himself badly faded too and England looked hopeless with the ball and completely out of ideas in the second half. It looks to me that half the team is set up fine, the defence, but the attack is going to really struggle to break sides down, even with Wayne Rooney back as their are so few numbers in advanced positions. Relying on set-pieces and breaks may work, but it's a hell of a risky strategy.
Sweden should have beaten Ukraine in their opening match, or at the very least rescued a draw after all the chances they had late on. After the match apparently Zlatan Ibrahimovic dragged his teammates back out for a proper warm down and the manager has also labelled them 'cowards'. In previous years Ibrahimovic has been a disappointment for his country, but he was the best player on the pitch in their opener. He was holding the ball up brilliantly, directing play, laying on chances and scored the Swede's goal. Whilst they have previously looked to him and found nothing, they now seem to be completely reliant on his inspiration. The flat midfield four were nothing special, but did the job in the same way England's did. The problem Sweden may have is that if Ashley Young or Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain are given licence to go at Sweden's defence they might find plenty of gaps.
Back England at 2.18 on Betfair.
Also a small play on England 1-0 at 7.0 with William Hill.
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