Lol.
Hello again one and all. After admitting my guilt in some less than brilliant tips during the Group Stages of Euro 2012 I came storming back somewhat with the Quarter Finals. I got doubles up on the Portugal v Czech Rep and on Italy v England last night with profits on both nights for the other two matches too. It should be easier to predict when you know every player and system and it seems to have proved that way!
Both the Portugal v Czech Republic and Germany v Greece ended up with only one side looking likely to win in either match, although both suffered scares of sorts. In Portugal's case Cristiano Ronaldo managed to hit the post twice before he eventually netted the winner in the last fifteen minutes. The Real Madrid man's importance really can't be overstated in a side that does not look likely to score without his aid. The midfield and defence easily coped with the minimal threat posed by the Czech's too, with once again only the wingers impressing in fits and starts. Germany made numerous attacking changes for the match against Greece and showed off the skills of relative newcomers Andres Schurrle and Marco Reus. Reus in particular was a player who I have followed this season in the Bundesliga and he lived up to his performances for Monchengladbach by looking a constant threat and scoring too. Joachim Low is now in the envious position of having to pick three forwards from six who have all done well so far. And if he does reinstate any of Mario Gomez, Lukas Podolski or Thomas Muller then they will be much fresher than their Italian counterparts. It is this amazing squad depth as much as anything else that makes them such hot favourites to triumph overall.
Spain's match followed the usual template sadly for those expecting any sort of thrills and spills. Laurent Blanc presumably fancied his side to soak up the Spanish pressure and hope for a break or set piece. Sadly his choice to leave his best wide players in the tournament, Samir Nasri and Jeremy Menez, left them looking completely impotent. Spain scored early after a rare cross from the byline from Jordi Alba was converted by Xabi Alonso. They then passed France into submission before gaining an injury time penalty which Alonso again scored. Last night saw England's match with Italy and it was actually more entertaining than I had expected. This was probably as much down to both sides taking most of the first half to settle down and both sides having chances. Mario Balotelli could have had three on a better night, but he hasn't looked completely confident in front of goal the whole tournament to me. England's defence again looked good, but Wayne Rooney has not performed since returning and was again ineffective and Scott Parker looked lost again at this level with a slower tempo. The better side probably did go through on balance. The fact that Germany have had extra rest and the match went to extra time and penalties should be a cause for concern for Cesare Prandelli though you would imagine.
Portugal v Spain, Wednesday 1945
These two neighbours go head to head on Wednesday night for the right to contest the final. Portugal are not anywhere near bad enough to be labelled a one man team, but they are possibly a one man attack. Whilst support comes from Nani, and probably Hugo Almeida after Helder Postiga's injury against the Czech's, if Ronaldo is subdued then Portugal don't look likely to score. Fortunately for Paulo Bento this has not been too much of an issue with Ronaldo looking brilliant in his last two matches and happy to have the responsibility of leading the side. Whatever you think of the man he is a brilliant player and second only to Lionel Messi in the world. Having led to Real Madrid to the La Liga title this season too he will know that if Portugal win Euro 2012 he will be nailed on to also take the World Player of The Year trophy himself. With the ego we all know he has this should provide all the motivation he needs to again perform. So far the defence has been relatively untested by a bombardment. Germany failed to sparkle when beating them 1-0 and Holland and Denmark only threatened sporadically, whilst the Czech's were no threat at all. A lot of this can be put down to the midfield three I think of Raul Meireles, Joao Moutinho and Miguel Veloso and there constant work off the ball. These three have all been clearly instructed to harry and chase the opposition then to look for Ronaldo or Nani when they have the ball themselves. Moutinho was the standout of the three against the Czech's with his constant intelligent use of the ball and assist for the goal. All three will need to be on top of their games to stop the Spanish midfield creating chances and to protect their defence. The fact that, rather than France, already play this system should actually help their cause and I would expect to see Ronaldo get a few chances if the midfield is playing well.
Spain have progressed largely without trouble, but have also failed to inspire either. They seem at times to be content to simply pass the ball around in midfield with no thought to grab a goal at all. Whether this is actually the gameplan or a reaction to the fact Xavi and Andres Iniesta are missing the dynamism of David Villa and club mate Messi to pass to is another question. The duty of being the furthest forward attacker has so far fallen to both Cesc Fabregas and Fernando Torres at different times. I think everyone is aware of Torres struggles since joining Chelsea last January and Fabregas has looked lively, but he is not a natural finisher. This has led to calls for either Fernando Llorente or Alvaro Negredo to get some time on the pitch to stake a claim from many in Spain as even the locals get bored by the lack of cutting edge the team has. The centre of defence is also not exactly secure at present with Gerard Pique coming off the back of his worst club season to date and Sergio Ramos not really being a natural centre back any more. Croatia and Italy both had chances against the Spaniard's and if they give up too many to Ronaldo he won't miss them all. They did come from behind to draw against Italy, but against a defence as well protected as Portugal's they may find it tougher. You can almost guarantee a tight match where Spain are involved as no team sees enough of the ball to run away with a match, and even fewer have the confidence to attack from the off. I wrote Portugal off pre-tournament, but I am now going to predict an upset and I think they will again make the final like they did at home in 2004.
Back Portugal To Qualify at 3.13 with StanJames.
Back Cristiano Ronaldo To Score Anytime at 3.0 with SportingBet.
Germany v Italy, Thursday 1945
The other Semi Final again sees two of Europe's most successful teams meeting. Germany have been mine and many others tip for the entire tournament from the outset and against Greece the attack finally came to life. Whilst Thomas Muller was doing a decent job for the team and Lukas Podolski had scored in the final group match, Joachim Low decided to rotate his entire forward line. This saw the introduction of seasoned campaigner Miroslav Klose and the two exciting young talents of Andres Schurrle and Marco Reus coming in. Both Klose and Reus scored in the 4-2 win and Schurrle certainly looked more lively than Muller or Podolski had for the majority of the tournament so far. The other benefit of this was that Mario Gomez and Podolski and Muller are completely rested now if they are restored to the starting line-up and that can only be a good thing for Germany. The defence has given away chances, as can be seen in conceding two to a Greek side with no great attacking talent, but this is probably more due to all of the defenders being allowed to march forward in the knowledge they'll score more than the opposition. Mats Hummels and Philip Lahm have both been found in shooting positions at times and they may well be asked to stay back a little more against a decent Italy side. There is also the fact Bastian Schweinsteiger is again carrying a knock and isn't training very much, but he should start again, albeit with slightly reduced mobility. Fortunately for him both Sami Khedira and Mesut Ozil have been playing well so he should be able to sit back and simply pick passes again. I'm certain Italy will get chances, but I'm even more certain Germany will have more and possess better finishers in great form.
Italy came through on penalties against England and will be buoyant from that. However comma this must be weighed up against the two days less rest they have and the extra half hour they played for. There were also weaknesses again on show against England that would have been exploited by a better side. The defence gave away numerous chances that England's forwards failed to capitalise on in an opening half hour where they did not settle at all. If there is a repeat of this against Germany they could easily be two behind before they know what's happened. The loss of Giorgio Chiellini to injury is a huge miss for them as he, along with the ever excellent Gianluigi Buffon, is the main organiser of the defence and by far the most experienced of Italy's defenders. Once Italy had settled it was again Andrea Pirlo who dictated the way the game went. England's players presumably had not been instructed to apply extra pressure to the Juventus man and it allowed him to wander around picking up the ball and starting attacks almost at his leisure. I would foresee Sami Khedira being detailed to keep a close eye on him at all times and with him also likely to be feeling the effects of the Quarter Final at thirty three years old, Khedira will fancy his chances of stopping him. The other slight worry is that whilst Mario Balotelli has got himself into great positions throughout the tournament, he has looked edgy and unwilling to pull the trigger. If the bulk of Italy's chances again fall to him and he is off colour then they'll have no chance. All in all I think this is a step to far for an Italy side who have done well to get this far.
Back Germany at 1.9 with Paddy Power.
Back Marco Reus (only if he is named in the starting line-up) To Score Anytime at 3.75 with SkyBet.
Back Second Half in Half With Most Goals at 2.25 with Coral.
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