On We Go...

Having gone the first three days in profit, sadly yesterday ruined all that with two losses. We have now seen every team in action and hopefully that means that prediction will get a bit easier, especially seeing as we also know that some teams will have to go for the jugular or face elimination. For what it's worth I have been most disappointed with Spain, Holland and France so far. All of them looked tired already to me, and France's defence looked in huge trouble for spells against an England side that really should not have been much of a threat. Russian and Italy looked good to me. Russia obviously played a poor Czech side, but they dismantled them once they went ahead, and Italy held out strongly against Spain and looked incredibly solid in defence.

Greece v Czech Republic, Tuesday 1700

In their first matches both these sides failed to impress me. In saying that, Greece did manage to come back with ten men from 1-0 behind to joint hosts Poland and were a missed penalty away from winning. They succeeded in dragging Poland down to their level and making it a scrappy game with few prolonged passages of play. Had Poland simply stuck to the way they were playing for the first twenty minutes they should have overran the Greeks. If you look at Greece's record for the past two years you will not see many teams winning against them, and it is because of this ability to make teams stop playing their own game that should receive a lot of the credit. The problem they have is that they lack any skilful players to take the game to the opposition, but they will fancy their chances against a poor Czech side.

The Czech's were thrashed 4-1 in their first game against Russia to somewhat back up my assertion that they could arguably be seen as the worst side here. They started off ok, but once the Russians went ahead they were absolutely overrun. If you look at the Czech team there really isn't anything there to worry the other sides in their group. Petr Cech in goal has finished the season strongly, but he's certainly not the player he was 3 years ago and is much more prone to errors of judgement. Similarly Milan Baros seems to still be the first choice striker and he is now surplus to requirements at Galatasaray having been displaced by Johan Elmander. The rest of the side is made up of players who many, including myself, will know little about as they have made little or no impression at the top level of the sport. I absolutely fail to see why Greece are rank outsiders in this.

Back Greece Draw No Bet at 2.3 with William Hill.

Poland v Russia, Tuesday 1945

Poland have another chance to live up to pre-tournament billing as a side to watch against Russia tonight. As mentioned above they started off well enough against Greece, with Robert Lewandowski in particular looking lively and putting them ahead. The Poles were attacking quickly and were getting plenty of crosses into the box towards Lewandowski, but they seemed to relax far too much once they were ahead. This let the Greeks back into the match and I would assume that the manager will not be allowing such a slacking off again in this one. The suspension of goalkeeper Wojciech Szczęsny may actually be a blessing in disguise for Poland too. Whilst I am a believer that confidence is one of the most important attributes for a goalkeeper to have, the Arsenal player seems too confident and his headstrong decision making cost his team a goal and a penalty in the Greece match. I think they can still get it together yet and progress from the group.

Russia are now being talked about as the outside bet for the whole tournament after recording the largest victory so far by beating the Czech's 4-1. Young playmaker Alan Dzagoev had also been mentioned as one to watch and his two goals certainly overshadowed the old master Andrei Arshavin's display. They looked every bit the team they are capable of being once they were ahead, but they do look nervous whilst on level terms and the longer that goes on the more I would have to back the opposition. They are now naturally favourites to win this match, and I think the price is actually fairly decent considering the Poland performance in the first match. They will be aware that a draw wont be the worst result in the world, as will Poland and I think we could see a low scoring match here with both sides not needing to take any huge risks.

Back Under 2.0 Goals at 2.3 with Bet365.

Denmark v Portugal, Wednesday 1700

The early kick off on Wednesday has a rematch between two members of the same Euro 2012 qualifying group. Denmark qualified top of the group and won one and drew the other against the Portugese. Denmark also currently lie joint top of this group as they managed to beat a highly fancied Holland side in the first match by a single goal to nil. They certainly rode their luck at times in the match though with Holland having twenty eight shots and somehow failing to convert a single one. That being said Denmark's goalkeeper Stephan Andersen looked very assured between the sticks and will have gained huge confidence from keeping out a side as good as Holland are for ninety minutes. The two players tipped to be their best before the tournament were Niklas Bendtner and Cristian Eriksen, but both only sporadically were involved on Saturday. I would expect them to have much more to do against a Portugal side who were very disappointing in their opener.

On to Portugal and I could not see pre-tournament why many people had them as an outside bet when there can be arguments for every side in their group being able to beat them. Against Germany they might well have held out until late on before going down 1-0, but in truth they were never in the match. It was only a poor performance from Germany's attackers that made it stay level for so long, they had all the possession and simply failed to make it count. A lot of the views I have seen saying Portugal have a chance are relying on Cristiano Ronaldo turning on his Real Madrid form into the tournament. Once again though he looked an isolated figure as the rest of the side are not anywhere near his level, and besides Nani possess no flair or goalscoring threat. This can make it easy for the opposition in a sense as if they can stop those two then it is highly unlikely Portugal will do well. Denmark managed this in both qualifying matches, so I think they have to be considered for this match.

Back Denmark and the Draw Double Chance at 1.83 with BODOG.

Holland v Germany, Wednesday 1945

The biggest match this week is probably the grudge match between Holland and Germany. Holland now have the added pressure of knowing they cannot afford to lose this match if they want to progress having lost the first match to Denmark. They wont be too worried about creating chances, but they should be worried about the conversion of those chances. The decision to start Ibrahim Afellay looked the wrong choice as he looked every inch the player that has missed most of the season through injury. Wesley Sneijder has also not been brilliant at club level, but he was the best performer in the Denmark match, laying on chance after chance for his team-mates. The defence also looked brittle at times, and that will have to be a concern, especially if Germany's attackers hit their stride. I really think it is going to be very hard for Holland to come back from this.

Germany did not really need to be at their best to beat Portugal, which was fortunate as their attackers were not firing at all. Mario Gomez in particular was very wasteful and paper talk in Germany has him dropped and Miroslav Klose being restored to the starting line-up. Personally I'm not sold on Gomez at all and I think Klose is a much better fit for the type of game Germany play. I would also like to see Thomas Muller dropped after a poor season and one from Mario Gotze or Marco Reus given a chance, but in an evenly matched game like this I think the fact Muller has played with the team more will go in his favour. I also think that whilst Germany will be keen to get a win and all but qualify for the knockout stages, they will also be aware that a draw would hardly be the end of the world. I think they'll be keeping it fairly tight and looking to possibly sneak a goal late on if Holland decide they want a win more than risking a point.

Back the Draw at 3.4 with ToteSport.