The first Quarter Final between Portugal and the Czech Republic was played last night, and it went largely as I would have expected. Portugal are not a hugely attacking side so it was always likely to be decided by a moment of brilliance from either Cristiano Ronaldo or Nani, as it happened Ronaldo had another brilliant match and got the only goal to see Portugal into the Semi Finals. We also got both tips up to almost double our money, hopefully this turn around in fortunes will last for the rest of the tournament.
A reminder that tonight is Germany v Greece and I have picked Germany -1 on the Handicap market and Mario Gomez to score. I can see this going off as either a complete attacking display from the German's, or if Greece can hold out for a while then as another efficient one or two nil win.
Spain v France, Saturday 1945
Spain are on for a historic hat-trick of tournament wins here, but as many have pointed out, they are not the team they were even two years ago anymore. They still dominate possession in every match they play with Xavi and Andres Iniesta as the fulcrum of the midfield, but they no longer possess anyone who can regularly finish these moves off. The loss to injury of David Villa early in last season has hurt them more than many were willing to give credit for. As a striker originally he always had in mind that moves should finish with a shot, which is something a lot of the rest of the side seem nervous of. The likes of David Silva, Cesc Fabregas and Iniesta have all been played along the forward line in the tournament, and Fabregas and Iniesta have looked good, but none of them have the goalscoring instincts that a striker would have. I can understand why Vicente Del Bosque has left Fernando Torres, Fernando Llorente and Alvaro Negredo on the bench as Torres is hopelessly out of form and the other two don't naturally fit into Spain's style, but something may have to change if they are to win the whole thing. I still expect Del Bosque to start with Fabregas as his nominal striker in this match though as France can probably be nullified by packing the midfield as they too don't use a traditional striker. There has been something of a backlash in the Spanish media too over the fact Llorente and Negredo have not had a minute on the pitch between them, but they probably aren't hugely necessary to win this game.
France progressed in second in the end from Group D thanks to an insipid performance in their last match resulting in a 2-0 loss to Sweden. I had actually thought the Swede's had been very unlucky to lose their first two matches, and with Zlatan Ibrahimovic finally delivering for his country they were always dangerous. The thing that has shocked me somewhat is France's lack of cutting edge and urgency in the final third. Whilst there had been warnings that their defence could be a weakness it was largely supposed to be balanced out by their thrilling attackers. Karim Benzema in particular came into the tournament having finally come good on his huge promise at Real Madrid in the preceeding season, but he has not looked up to much to me. I have read that apparently his movement has been excellent, and maybe I've missed that, but he has rarely looked threatening. When you also have Franck Ribery and Samir Nasri hardly in sparkling form and it leaves them looking unlikely to live up to the hype as potential outsiders. This is without even mentioning the defence which was exposed in every single match and showed no signs of improvement. The suspension of hot-headed Phillipe Mexes could actually be a blessing in disguise as he has shown himself able to cope with Barcelona at Arsenal and that is still basically the Spain model. That being said I still find it hard to see France making many chances or keeping a clean sheet so I think this goes Spain's way.
Back Spain at 1.85 with BetVictor.
Back Spain 1-0 at 6.5 with Ladbrokes.
England v Italy, Sunday 1945
This is a match many expected England would not make it to after the squad was named and the warm-up friendlies played. To say some of the names in the squad were uninspiring is an understatement, and Roy Hodgson's tactic of ceding possession no matter the opposition is at times horrible to watch, but they qualified top of Group D. They have shown in every match that defence is their strongest area and for that reason it probably is no surprise to see the tactics Hodgson is employing. Joe Hart is again looking a hugely promising goalkeeper and in front of him all of the back four have had good tournaments. The full backs Glen Johnson and Ashley Cole have obviously been instructed to defend first and it has made them look very solid, which is a real bonus in the case of Johnson. John Terry and Joleon Lescott have also looked solid for the majority of the time at centre back, although Terry has again looked susceptible to pace and Italy will presumably have noticed that. I have always been a critic of Steven Gerrard for England and his tendency to not stick to a position and always try his 'Hollywood' balls, but he has been discipline personified so far and it is to his and Hodgson's immense credit. The other three midfielders have looked less impressive to me. Scott Parker looks headless at times and he is not the player some would have you believe, Ashley Young has looked good for around 20 minutes so far and James Milner is hard-working, but incredibly limited at this level. In the case of Young he is probably worth persisting with, but I'm not sure about the other two. Danny Welbeck and Wayne Rooney started the last match, and offered very little cohesion or threat for the most part. Rooney's touch again looked awful and his goal really came from a goalkeeping error and a 2 yard finish anyone could have scored. Welbeck moved around a lot without really doing anything. I would probably get Andy Carroll in for his physical threat and keep Rooney as he is more comfortable dropping deep and crossing for the big man.
Italy will line-up in a very similar fashion to England with two banks of four and probably Antonio Cassano and Antonio Di Natale up front. This could lead to a very dull match with both sides probably cancelling each other out for long spells. The biggest worry for the Italian's will be the loss of Giorgio Chiellini at centre back due to injury as he is the chief organiser and most experienced defender they have. More responsibility will now fall upon the goalkeeper Gianluigi Buffon to organise the defence, which he should be able to do with his vast experience. Buffon has always been one of my favourite players due to his absolute brilliance throughout a twelve year career so far with very few spells where his performance dropped below outstanding. I would expect Leonardo Bonucci to step in to partner his club mate Andrea Barzagli so there shouldn't be too much problem there they will hope. The key player for Italy so far has been another veteran, Andrea Pirlo. His performances against Spain and in the first half against Croatia were excellent, but he was subdued thereafter. Italy will be hoping the rest he has had now will see him back to his best as he has more than enough to dictate the match with England happy to give up possession. The it will fall to Di Natale and Cassano to finish off any moves that Pirlo starts. Di Natale has had another brilliant season for Udinese, but his knees need rest and that is why he was withdrawn against Irleand presumably with this match in mind. If he and Cassano link up properly they could really cause problems for England. This one could well go to Extra Time, if not even penalties.
Back the Draw at 3.1 with Stan James.
Back Under 1.5 Goals at 2.5 with SkyBet.
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